More more than one month has passed since sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin concluded at the US Mint. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to examine the recent sales prices for the coins on the secondary market.
In recent weeks, the premiums for many collectible gold coins have experienced a sharp decline. This has come amidst an extended decline in the price of gold, which brought the price from its high of $1,212.50 reached on December 2, 2009 to the recent low of $1,058.00 per ounce reached on February 5, 2010.
I have been generally aware of the price levels of the UHR Double Eagles, but it was very interesting to do a more comprehensive evaluation. I compiled all of the data for completed eBay auctions from January 28 to February 10. I recorded the prices for any listings resulting in a sale and the basic aspects of the coin (raw, PCGS, or NGC grade). I came up with a total of 102 prices, which I think provided a reasonable amount of data for examining trends and averages. I did not take into account any factors such as the duration of the auction, time of day, whether it was an auction or Buy It Now, feedback of the sellers, etc.
First, I tried to examine the data to see if prices were generally rising or falling, but I also wanted to take into account the price of gold. The trend of the UHR price levels could be a bit difficult to pin down, because of the different price levels for various grades and raw coins. To narrow the focus, I picked the biggest group, raw coins, and looked at the average price for the first five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,080.59 and the last five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,062.02.
The average price for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle in original US Mint packaging for the first five days was $1,520.50. The average price for a similar coin during the last five days examined was $1,549.06. As the price of gold was falling, the prices paid for the UHR Double Eagle held up and even showed gains. I think this is a good indication of the long term staying power and continued premiums for the coin.
One of the most surprising things I saw when running through the data were the prices being paid for coins which have been graded NGC MS 70 PL. NGC uses the “PL” designation for coins which exhibit proof like surfaces.
During the period, eight coins graded NGC MS 70 PL were sold. Some prices from early in the period were $4,100 and $4,150. The most recent three coins sold for around $4,500 each. NGC’s online population report indicates that 589 coins have been graded MS 70 PL compared to 4,611 coins graded MS 70 without the designation.
As a final exercise, I calculated the average prices realized for 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles across various options. The results of these calculations are below.
|PCGS MS70 FS||$2,229.60|
|NGC MS 69||$1,547.00|
|NGC MS 69 PL||$2,412.80|
|NGC MS 70||$1,836.45|
|NGC MS 70 PL||$4,268.00|
I thought it was interesting that the average price paid for a UHR Double Eagle in the original box was $1,543.48. This is just a little bit above the highest price that the US Mint had charged for the coin. The price of $1,539 was briefly in effect when the average price of gold had risen to a range between $1,150 and $1,099.99. The lowest price the US Mint charged for the coin was $1,189, in effect when sales first began on January 19, 2009.
If anyone is interested, the price data gathered from eBay can be found in this spreadsheet.