Thursday, June 23, 2011

Julia Grant First Spouse Gold Coins

Later today, June 23, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET, the United States Mint will begin sales of the 2011 Julia Grant First Spouse Gold Coins. This will continue the one-half ounce 24 karat gold coin series featuring the spouses of the former Presidents.

The obverse design features a portrait of Julia Grant designed by Donna Weaver and sculpted by Michael Gaudioso. The inscriptions include her name, the order of the Presidency “18th”, years of the term “1869-1877″, the mottoes “In God We Trust”, “Liberty”, the date, and mint mark.

On the reverse of the coin is a scene of young Julia Dent and her future husband Ulysses S. Grant. The two are pictured during their courtship, riding horseback on her family’s plantation, White Haven. The inscriptions include “United States of America”, “E Pluribus Unum”, the legal tender face value, and the weight and fineness of the gold content. The reverse was designed by Richard Masters and sculpted by Charles L. Vickers.

The maximum mintage level has been established at 15,000 coins, across the available proof and uncirculated versions. This is the same level that was in place for the previous release, as well as three out of the four releases for 2010. There are no household ordering limits imposed.

Initial pricing for the coins will be $929 for the proof version and $916 for the uncirculated version. This is based on an average gold price within the $1,500 to $1,549.99 range and may be adjusted throughout the course of sales as the average gold price moves into different pricing tiers. The previous Eliza Johnson gold coins had the same initial pricing, had a one week decrease, and then moved back to the original pricing.

The period of availability for each release of the First Spouse Gold Coin program has been somewhat erratic throughout the series. It seems that whenever a familiar pattern has settled in, the events or circumstances align to change it.

Back in 2007, the first three issues all managed to sell out of their maximum mintage of 40,000 on the first day of availability. The United States Mint responded by lowering ordering limits to one per household, which would remain in place for the next several releases, even after sales had cooled.

The following issues of the series remained available for approximately one year from the initial release date. The US Mint would end sales sales of one particular issue to coincide with the release of the coin one year ahead in the schedule. The only aberration to this pattern was when the US Mint ended sales of both the Letitia and Julia Tyler coins together to adjust for the extra coin issued for that year.

The next change in the pattern of availability came with the 2010-dated releases. Each issue carried a maximum mintage of 15,000 and there was no reason to believe sales would proceed any differently than in the past. In early 2011, the proof version of the James Buchanan’s Liberty coin unexpectedly sold out with sales well under the maximum mintage. It turned out that the US Mint had struck fewer than the maximum mintage based on demand forecasts, and no further coins could be produced since it was already 2011. Similar sell outs occurred for the other 2011 issues, and now the only one that remains available is the proof version of the Mary Todd Lincoln coin.

The shifts in availability have contributed to some attractively low mintages throughout the series. It’s probably safe to assume that new Julia Grant First Spouse Gold Coins will be available from the US Mint throughout 2011, but after that I suppose anything could happen.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

2010-P Abraham Lincoln Rolls Sold Out


According to the US Mint’s website, the 2010 Abraham Lincoln Presidential $1 Coin Rolls from the Philadelphia Mint have sold out. These are the specially packaged numismatic rolls offered by the Mint for each issue of the series. The coins included in the rolls are the same as those issued for circulation.

The Abraham Lincoln Dollar Rolls originally went on sale on November 18, 2010, meaning that they have been available for just over seven months. The 25-coin rolls from Philadelphia have sold 49,300 units according to the latest sales report.

At the time of this post, the Denver Mint rolls remain available for sale, although they have a back order date of July 7. The sales report shows slightly lower sales at 48,770 units.

Numismatic products that feature Abraham Lincoln have always been popular and this product has been no exception. The sales levels are well above of all other Presidential Dollar rolls that are currently offered by the US Mint, several of which have been available for longer periods of time. The longest available rolls are those featuring James K. Polk, which originally went on sale on August 20, 2009.

Of the sold out Presidential Dollar Rolls, the only ones that tend to bring a big premium are those featuring William Henry Harrison. These rolls sold out in less than two months, with final sales of 30,000 from each mint. The continued premium is somewhat perplexing as a few subsequent issues also sold out quickly at the same final sales levels, but do not command a premium.

Coin Update News: Complete US Mint Sales Report

Monday, June 20, 2011

2011 September 11 National Medals

Today, the United States Mint will begin sales of the 2011 September 11 National Medals. Up to 2 million of the proof quality, one ounce silver medals will be issued.

The designs used for the medal are intended to be “emblematic of the courage, sacrifice, and strength of those individuals who perished in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the bravery of those who risked their lives to save others that day, and the endurance, resilience, and hope of those who survived.”

As covered in a previous post, the obverse features Liberty holding the Lamp of Remembrance with two beacons of light in the background, while the reverse features an eagle against a background of flowing water. The inscriptions read “Always Remember” and “2001-2011″ on the obverse and “Honor Hope” on the reverse. The obverse and reverse were designed by Donna Weaver and sculpted by Phebe Hemphill (obverse) and Joseph Menna (reverse).

The medals are struck in .999 fine silver with a diameter of 40.6 mm and weight of one troy ounce. Production will take place at West Point and Philadelphia, with separate coins available featuring the “W” or “P” mint mark on the reverse.

The authorizing legislation allows the medals to be struck until December 31, 2012 and does not specify a sales ending date. Separately, the US Mint indicated that they would conclude sales in December 2012.

Introductory pricing is $56.95 for each September 11 National Medal, effective from June 20 to August 18, 2011 at 5:00 PM ET. After this time, the price will be $66.95. Orders placed during the introductory period will receive a document showcasing the artwork for the designs. Medals are not expected to begin shipping until September 1, 2011.

All prices reflect a surcharge of $10 per medal, which will be distributed to the National September 11 Memorial & Museum to support operations and maintenance.

There is a greater than typical incentive to order the medals during the introductory period. The price increase after the end of the stated period reflects an increase of $10 per medal. This year’s proof commemorative silver dollars, which also had lower introductory pricing, experienced an increase of $5 per coin after the end of the period.

Pricing in general also seems quite low by US Mint standards. The proof commemorative silver dollars, which only contain 0.7736 ounces of silver content, were initially priced at $54.95. This pricing was established on January 3, when the market price of silver was around $30.60.

The upcoming 2011 Proof Silver Eagle, which contains the same silver content as the September 11 Medal, will be priced at $59.95. If you consider the $10 surcharge added to the medal, the Proof Silver Eagles are priced $13 higher.

The relatively lower pricing for the September 11 National Medal may reflect expectations of higher sales volume due to the potential for broad demand. So far, I have not seen too many mainstream mentions of the medals. If the US Mint can get the word out, this is an issue that many members of the general public may want to purchase.

Friday, June 17, 2011

2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins


While the numismatic versions have dominated collector attention, the United States Mint continues to release the bullion versions of 2011-dated America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Coins. After the first two designs quickly sold out, the third design has lingered, as the four design prepares for release.

Since these are bullion coins, they are distributed through a network of authorized purchasers (APs) and not sold directly to the public. The APs are able to purchase the coins from the Mint in bulk quantities based on the market price of silver plus a mark up of $9.75 per coin. The coins are then resold to other dealers and the public.

The US Mint began accepting orders for the first two designs for this year featuring Gettysburg National Military Park and Glacier National Park on April 25, 2011. The Mint indicated that an initial quantity of 126,700 coins for each design would be made available via allocation.

By the end of April, the APs had ordered 225,400 of the coins across both designs, representing almost 90% of the total quantity available. The US Mint announced a complete sell out of all 253,400 coins on May 16.

The following design featuring Olympic National Park was first available for ordering on May 23, 2011. By the close of the month, APs had ordered 73,400 coins, representing about 58% of the total quantity available. According to the latest available information, no further sales have been recorded for the current month to date.

Next week on June 20, 2011, the US Mint will begin accepting orders from authorized purchasers for the next design featuring Vicksburg National Military Park. Once again, the initial quantity available will be 126,700 coins. It seems possible that the pace of orders may be even slower than the prior release.

The slow down in sales for the five ounce silver bullion coins may be the result of a combination of factors. The significant increase in the quantity available is likely having an impact, as it takes investors and collectors time to absorb the supply. Collectively, all five of the 2010-dated bullion releases had production of 165,000 coins. Sales for the 2011-dated coins have already more than doubled this amount.

The turbulence in the silver market may have provided a boost to earlier sales. When the first two designs of 2011 were released, the price of silver was reaching new highs and physical silver inventories were getting tighter. The popular American Silver Eagles were in short supply as the US Mint continued to ration quantities, driving increased premiums on the secondary market. At the time, the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins presented a great alternative to acquire physical silver.

Two months later, the US Mint managed to increase the number of American Silver Eagles available by adding production at the San Francisco Mint. This seems to be having an impact on the market, as shown by a decline in premiums charged by bullion dealers. With both silver bullion options on more equal footing, some may be turning back to the traditional Silver Eagles.

Seasonality may also be having an impact. Precious metals sales have generally showed a decline in activity during the summer. For the past two years, Silver Eagle sales have shown incremental declines in the summer months, with a rebound in demand starting in October.

What will be the long term level of demand for America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins? The number of coins struck for 2010 was certainly too low at 165,000 coins (825,000 ounces). This year production across all five designs will be 633,500 coins (3,167,500 ounces) if the US Mint continues to make the same quantity available. This would be a little less than one-tenth the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold last year.

Update: The US Mint has scheduled the release of the next two numismatic versions of the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Coins. Grand Canyon National Park will be released on June 29, 2011 and Mount Hood National Forest will be released on July 28, 2011.

Another update: The US Mint just posted a video on ATB Silver Bullion Coin production on YouTube. I will embed below or check it out here.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

The Flood of US Mint Silver Numismatic Products


The pendulum of US Mint product offerings always seems to swing from way too little, to way too much. This year collectors seem to be facing “way too much,” particularly for silver numismatic products.

For many years, there had typically been two to four different silver numismatic products offered by the US Mint. These have included one or two different commemorative silver dollars and the annual Proof Silver Eagle. Starting in 2006, an uncirculated version of the Silver Eagle was added to the mix.

Most recently, for 2009, both of the collectible Silver Eagles were canceled, resulting in just two silver products. For 2010, the proof Silver Eagle returned, making for three silver products. This year, due to some unusual circumstances, there are fifteen different silver numismatic products that have been released or are expected to be released.

To make matters worse, the flood of silver products occurs during a year when the market price of silver has reached 30 year high. So not only are their more products for collectors to buy, the price levels are significantly higher.

For each of these product counts, I am not including annual sets struck in silver or various packaging types or versions of the same coin. The specific silver products for each year are listed below.

2009 Silver Products

Abraham Lincoln Commemorative Silver Dollars
Louis Braille Commemorative Silver Dollars

2010 Silver Products

2010 Boy Scouts Commemorative Silver Dollars
2010 American Veterans Disabled for Life Silver Dollars
2010 Proof Silver Eagle

2011 Silver Products

2011 Army Commemorative Silver Dollars
2011 Medal of Honor Commemorative Silver Dollars
2011 September 11 National Medals
2011 Proof Silver Eagle
2011-W Unc Silver Eagle
2010 Hot Springs 5 oz Unc Silver
2010 Yellowstone 5 oz Unc Silver
2010 Yosemite 5 oz Unc Silver
2010 Grand Canyon 5 oz Unc Silver
2010 Mount Hood 5 oz Unc Silver
2011 Gettysburg 5 oz Unc Silver
2011 Glacier 5 oz Unc Silver
2011 Olympic 5 oz Unc Silver
2011 Vicksburg 5 oz Unc Silver
2011 Chickasaw 5 oz Unc Silver

Any way you look at it, this year will represent a historic high in terms of the number of silver numismatic products released, going back many years. In 1995 and 1996, there had been seven silver products released per year, due to an outpouring of commemorative issues. This situation actually led to legislation which limited the number of commemorative programs that could be approved for each year.

To find a higher number of silver numismatic products than 2011, I believe you have to go all the way back to 1936, when early commemorative coin issuance had gotten out of control.

There is a potential “silver lining” in the current situation. In the past, at the end of a cycle there have typically been several products that remain overlooked, under ordered, or otherwise low in mintage. The circumstances and specifics are always different, but these types of products have gone on to relatively swift and enduring high price levels on the secondary market.

In 2008, the US Mint reached the peak of an aggressive expansion in the number of numismatic gold and platinum products. For that year, they had offered proof and uncirculated versions, fractional weight coins, and four coin sets across three different programs. Near the end of the year, the US Mint announced the cancellation of the vast majority of the products types, setting off a rapid sell out of remaining inventories. When the dust settled, there were significant winners in the 2008-W Proof and Uncirculated Gold Buffalo coins, 2008-W Uncirculated $10 Gold Eagle, and to a lesser extent some of the low mintage platinum coins.

I see the potential for another batch of winners occurring at the end of the current cycle.

Stay tuned. It’s going to be an interesting year.

Coin Update News: US Mint Sales Report