Friday, October 28, 2011

Anniversary Sets Sold Out

The US Mint’s 20th Anniversary Silver Eagle Sets are now officially sold out.

The sets went on sale yesterday October 27, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET. As expected, it was extremely difficult for customers to place orders by website or phone. The US Mint indicated that they received orders for approximately 25,000 sets within the first hour.

Around 4:30 PM ET, the US Mint posted the “waiting list notice” on the online product page, indicating that orders had been received for the entire 100,000 production limit.

Based on comments in the previous post, it seems that the extreme difficulty in placing orders continued for the entire duration of the offering. The problems even continued for several hours after the waiting list notice was posted.

Order numbers from the comments in the previous post range from 38324xxx placed at 12:04 PM to 38370xxx placed at 4:17 PM. This represents a difference of about 46,000.

An order placed at 5:24 PM after the waiting list had been imposed  had a number of 38381xxx, which represents a difference of 57,000.

This morning around 10:15 AM ET, the US Mint stopped accepting orders for the waiting list and officially marked the online page as “sold out.”

Ordering problems are unfortunately nothing new for highly desirable, low production US Mint products. As in the past, they admit that they are aware of the problem and offer solutions at a future point in time. The following message was posted on their Facebook page:

We are committed to improving your online ordering experience and have recently awarded a contract that will result in a new, state of art order management system. We appreciate your continued patience and understanding as we work toward implementing this new system in 2012.

There have been indications that a majority of customers placed orders for the household limit of five sets. In retrospect, it seems that the US Mint should have considered a lower limit if they wanted the widest possible distribution. At times in the past, they have indicated that they establish limits with this goal in mind.

The former US Mint Director Edmund Moy even went so far as to completely cancel the 2009 Proof Silver Eagles because it was apparent that some collectors who would want them would not be able to obtain them  due to the limited number the Mint would be able to produce. Under his watch, it was apparently preferable to have everyone end up with nothing, rather than disappoint some.

Many readers have been posting questions about what various statuses represent for their orders. I have not personally studied their various statuses in any detail. I will re-post a comment from “Two Cents” with some explanations:

The Mint uses the word “backorder” in a different way that most people are familiar with.

Most companies are sellers, not manufacturers, so when an item is on “backorder,” that means that they have run out of that item, and need to order more from the manufacturer. That may take days or weeks or even months, so the company is telling the customer that he has to wait until the product comes in.

The Mint is both manufacturer and seller, so when they say “backorder,” they mean that the order is backed up until the coins are minted, assembled, and then shipped to the fulfillment center for mailing.

The Mint uses “hold” to mean that they need time to verify that the order is legitimate (in this case, not more than 5 sets per household) and that the customer’s credit card has sufficient funds. “In process” means that verification has been done, and now all it takes is for the Mint to see if there are enough sets ready for mailing.

“In stock and reserved” means that the coins have been assembled into sets and ready to be shipped to the fulfillment center, and that all verifications have been made. At this point, the Mint has ACCEPTED the order — prior to this, the Mint has only RECEIVED the order. Once the set is labeled for mailing, then you will receive a “Shipped” notice and tracking number (though the actual mailing date may be the next day).

“Suspended” is something new to me. I suppose that is used when a later order is made after the household limit has been reached. I have never seen a “Waiting List” message on the online order receipt or email confirmation, but then, I have never been put on a waiting list.

To sum up, once you see “In process” and/or “In stock and reserved,” you can safely assume that you will get your coins. “Hold” and “Backorder” are used routinely and does not mean that you will not get your coins.

Other readers have had questions about the waiting list.

I am not sure about the prospects of any particular waiting list orders being fulfilled. The US Mint fulfills these orders on a first-in, first-served basis in the event that coins become available due to order cancellations. There are likely tens of thousands of orders on the waiting list based on the order numbers indicated in comments. It seems that at least some of the earlier ones will be fulfilled as the US Mint cancels duplicate orders placed either inadvertently or intentionally.

I don’t believe there is any way to determine if your order was placed after the waiting list was imposed based on the order receipt. My own order was placed at 5:39 PM after the US Mint implemented the waiting list. The receipt does not make any indication that the order is for the waiting list and shows the status as backordered. Generally, any orders placed after 4:30 PM (or so) are most likely for the waiting list.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set

Tomorrow, October 27, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET, the United States Mint will begin sales of the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set. For many collectors this set represents the mostly highly anticipated US Mint product of the year.

Information about the offering has slowly trickled out during the year, with the final details only recently confirmed. Very early in the year, I had suggested the possibility that the Mint might issue a special set to mark the anniversary, especially considering the success of the 20th anniversary sets issued in 2006.  On August 19, the US Mint confirmed their plans to issue a special 25th anniversary set and indicated the five coins that would be included. On October 13, the Mint confirmed the release date for the set as October 27 and provided the first image. On October 20, the pricing for the set was confirmed with the maximum production limit indicated shortly thereafter.

The 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set will contain the following coins:

  • 2011 Proof Silver Eagle (W mint mark)
  • 2011 Uncirculated Silver Eagle (W mint mark)
  • 2011 Uncirculated Silver Eagle (S mint mark)
  • 2011 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle (P mint mark)
  • 2011 Silver Eagle bullion coin (no mint mark, but struck at the San Francisco Mint)

The five coins are packaged in a “custom-design, highly polished, lacquered hardwood presentation case.” Each set is accompanied by a certificate of authenticity.

The maximum product limit has been set at 100,000 units. There will be an ordering limit of five sets per household in effect for at least the first week of sales, after which point the limit will be re-evaluated and either extended, adjusted, or removed. Pricing for the sets is $299.95.

For purposes of comparison, the 20th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set issued in 2006 contained three coins, one proof with W mint mark, one uncirculated with W mint mark, and one reverse proof with P mint mark. The sets were limited to 250,000 units with an ordering limit of ten per household.  The price was $100 per set. At the same time, the US Mint also released a 20th Anniversary Gold Eagle Set and a 20th Anniversary Gold and Silver Eagle Set. It took approximately two weeks for the silver set to achieve a sell out. It took about two and a half months for the silver sets to sell out. Secondary market prices rose as high as $600 per set, before settling to their current levels around $300. [Updated after further research. It's also worth noting that the peak price wasn't reached until around June 2007, or ten months after the sets initially went on sale. Thank you Steve for your comments.]

Based on the available information, the 25th Anniversary Set will include two very significant coins in the American Silver Eagle series. These are the 2011-P Reverse Proof Silver Eagle and the 2011-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle. Provided these coins are not offered in any other format, they would have a maximum mintage of 100,000 pieces. These two coins would become the second lowest mintage Silver Eagles across all years and formats, after the rare 1995-W Proof Silver Eagle, which has a mintage of 30,125.

A complete sell out for the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle is a near certainty, as are probable US Mint website problems during the first few hours of availability. The most recent stampede for a newly released US Mint product occurred for the 2010-P Hot Springs Five Ounce Uncirculated Coin. After accepting 6,000 web orders in the first hour of sales, the Mint’s website went down and was not restored for 45 minutes. At that point, web orders were processed at the “normal capacity” of 120-150 orders per minute. After nine hours, there were more than 19,000 orders received by phone and through the website.

The fastest US Mint sell out within recent memory was for the 2009 Lincoln Coin & Chronicles Set, which had a production of 50,000 units, one per household ordering limit, and price of $55.95. After five hours, sales had reached 29,919 sets. Sales continued until a sell out was reached the following day at 6:00 PM, after 30 hours of availability.

Here is a link to the US Mint’s product page for the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set for quick access tomorrow:

http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=16626&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=10111

Monday, October 24, 2011

2011-P Glacier Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin

Tomorrow October 25, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET, the US Mint will begin sales of the 2011-P Glacier National Park Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin. Overall, this is the seventh numismatic release of the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins.

The reverse design of the coin features a view of the northeast slope of Mount Reynolds with a mountain goat climbing over rocky slopes in the foreground. This was designed by Barbara Fox and sculpted by Charles L. Vickers. The obverse contains the 1932 portrait of George Washington by John Flanagan.

Each coin is struck in 5 troy ounces of .999 fine silver and has an extra large diameter of 3 inches. The coins include the “P” mint mark and have a special finish created through a vapor blasting technique.

The US Mint has set the mintage limit at 35,000 coins, with an initial ordering limit of 5 coins per household. The price of each coin is $229.95 plus applicable shipping and handling.

This release comes a little more than a month after the unusual start for the last design featuring Gettysburg National Military Park. The US Mint began sales on September 22, with the coins priced at $279.95 each.  On September 26, sales were suspended along with other silver numismatic products due to a sharp drop in the market price of silver. Initial sales figures, reflecting orders placed through September 26, came in at 9,549.

The following week, total sales of the 2011-P Gettysburg coin showed a decline of 506 units, resulting from order cancellations and returns. Product sales resumed on October 7, at a lower price of $229.95 per coin. Total sales regained lost ground and as of the latest sales report (October 17), sales had reached 13,157. This is a significant change from the collector response to the initial numismatic release featuring Hot Springs. On the opening day of sales, the US Mint’s website crashed and initial orders reached approximately 25,000. Starting with the third release of the numismatic series, initial sales have experienced a steady decline.

Looking ahead, the US Mint has scheduled the next numismatic ATB release featuring Olympic National Park for November 29, 2011. This will represent the eighth numismatic 5 ounce silver coin release of the year. The remaining two 2011-dated numismatic ATB coins are listed as “TBD”  and it seems will likely be released in 2012.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

25th Anniversary Set Priced at $299.95

The United States Mint has announced the pricing for the 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set as $299.95 per set.

This price will remain subject to potential change based on the market price of silver leading up to the release and throughout the period of availability.

Pricing for the set has been an object of speculation for the many collectors eagerly awaiting the release. Although the price is higher than some people had been estimating, personally, I had expected the price to be even higher.

Each set will contain the following five coins:

  • 2011 Proof Silver Eagle (W mint mark)
  • 2011 Uncirculated Silver Eagle (W mint mark)
  • 2011 Uncirculated Silver Eagle (S mint mark)
  • 2011 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle (P mint mark)
  • 2011 Silver Eagle bullion coin (no mint mark, but struck at the San Francisco Mint)

The US Mint currently sells proof Silver Eagles individually for $58.95 each and uncirculated Silver Eagles individually at $50.95 each. The bullion versions are sold to authorized purchasers in bulk quantities based on the market price of silver plus a mark up of $2 per coin.

The 2011 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle and 2011-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle are not offered individually and are not expected to be available in any other numismatic products, making these coins unique to the set.

The Mint has also confirmed that they will produce “up to 100,000 sets” with a household ordering limit of 5 sets to be imposed for at least the first week of sales. Orders will be accepted starting on October 27, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Vicksburg National Park Quarter Three Coin Set

On October 18, 2011 at 12:00 Noon ET, the US Mint began sales of the America the Beautiful Quarters Three Coin Set featuring Vicksburg National Military Park.

This is the ninth release for the product type, which is now finally aligned with the circulation release schedule for the series. The first three coin set had been issued in late 2010, after the America the Beautiful Quarters Program was already well underway.

The Vicksburg Quarter Three Coin set includes one uncirculated coin from the Philadelphia Mint, one uncirculated coin from the Denver Mint, and one proof coin from the San Francisco Mint. The coins are mounted on a plastic card, which includes a brief description of the coins and site, as well as a certificate of authenticity on the back.

Pricing for the sets is $14.95 each. There are no ordering limits or stated product limits in place.

The eight previously released sets featuring Hot Springs, Yellowstone, Yosemite, Grand Canyon, Mount Hood, Gettysburg, Glacier, and Olympic National Parks can still be purchased online at the US Mint. All are listed on this product page.