Thursday, December 22, 2011

James Garfield $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Set

Today, December 22, 2011, the United States Mint began sales of the latest Presidential $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Set featuring James Garfield and Lucretia Garfield.

Each set includes an uncirculated James Garfield Presidential Dollar and a Lucretia Garfield Bronze Medal. The coin and medal are mounted on a plastic card featuring portraits of the President and First Lady on the front and issuance information on the back.

The sets are priced at $14.95 each, plus applicable shipping and handling. There are no stated production limits or ordering limits.

The uncirculated James Garfield Presidential Dollar has previously been released within the 2011 Uncirculated Mint Set and the 2011 Presidential Dollar Uncirculated Set. The Lucretia Garfield Bronze Medal is offered for sale by the US Mint separately or within a four medal set.

Previously released Presidential $1 Coin & First Spouse Medal Sets for Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan’s Liberty, Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Johnson, Ulysses S. Grant, and Rutherford B. Hayes remain available for sale at the US Mint. This product type seems to represent the smallest contributor to the US Mint’s overall numismatic product revenue. So far, the 2011-dated $1 coin and medal sets have had sales ranging from 5,561 to 3,924.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Sales Figures for 2011 Commems

The United States Mint concluded sales of the 2011 commemorative coins last week on December 16, 2011. The two programs which feature the U.S. Army and the Medal of Honor have been somewhat overlooked this year due to the many other numismatic products competing for attention.

The latest sales report posted today on Coin Update provides updated sales figures for the commemorative coins through December 19, 2011.

These numbers should reflect all final orders placed through the scheduled conclusion of sales. It is possible that the US Mint may continue to update the figures slightly in the coming weeks to account for order cancellations and returns, but most likely there will not be any significant changes.

U.S. Army Commemorative Coins
Proof Uncirculated Total
$5 Gold Coin 17,173 8,062 25,235
Silver Dollar 119,829 43,517 163,346
Half Dollar 68,349 39,461 107,810
Medal of Honor Commemorative Coins
Proof Uncirculated Total
$5 Gold Coin 18,012 8,251 26,263
Silver Dollar 112,850 44,769 157,619

The numbers do not result in any changes to the mintage rankings of the coins compared to other modern commemorative issues that were presented in this previous post. The uncirculated $5 gold coins are the third and fourth lowest mintage amongst modern commemoratives with the same finish and denomination. The proof $5 gold coins are the first and second lowest mintages for the same finish and denomination. Both the proof and uncirculated versions of the Army Half Dollars are the lowest mintage for their respective finishes and denomination.

The sales from commemorative coin programs are also often looked at in comparison to the maximum authorized mintages. For the U.S. Army commemorative coins, the $5 gold coins sold 25,235 of the 100,000 maximum (25.24%), the silver dollars sold 163,346 of the 500,000 maximum (32.67%), and the half dollars sold 107,810 of the 750,000 maximum (14.37%).

For the Medal of Honor commemorative coins, the $5 gold coins sold 26,263 of the 100,000 maximum (26.26%), and the silver dollars sold 157,619 of the 500,000 maximum (31.52%).

Looking ahead

For the 2012 commemorative coins, there will once again be two programs featured, but with a smaller number of coins. The program commemorating the legacy of the United States Army Infantry and the establishment of the National Infantry Museum and Soldier Center will include only a silver dollar. The program commemorating the writing the of Star Spangled Banner will feature $5 gold coins and silver dollars.

For 2013, two programs have already been authorized by Congress. The first will mark the 100th anniversary of the Girl Scouts of America and include silver dollars. The second will recognize and celebrate the 5-Star Generals and include $5 gold coins, silver dollars, and half dollars.

So far one program has been authorized for 2014 to mark the 50th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. This program will include silver dollars.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Chickasaw Three Coin Set and Other US Mint Updates

Today, December 20, 2011, the United States Mint began sales of the America the Beautiful Quarters Three Coin Set featuring Chickasaw National Recreation Area.

This is the tenth release for the product type launched in late 2010 that contains uncirculated versions of each quarter from the Philadelphia and Denver Mint and a proof version from the San Francisco Mint. The previous nine three-coin sets still remain available for sale at the US Mint, with sales totals ranging from a high of 20,079 for Yellowstone to a low of 13,182 for the most recently released set featuring Vicksburg.

The 2011 Chickasaw National Recreation Quarter Three Coin Set features the coins mounted to a durable plastic card. A brief description of the site and coin as well as the certificate of authenticity are included on the back. The product carries no stated maximum production limit or household limit. The price is $14.95 per set plus applicable shipping and handling.

As mentioned in the past, each of the coins are available through the 2011-dated annual sets offered by the United States Mint or the America the Beautiful Quarters Proof Set and Uncirculated Coin Set. The current product represents a different packaging option.

Numismatic Gold and Platinum Product Price Decrease

It is likely that the prices for the US Mint’s gold and platinum numismatic products will be decreased tomorrow. The US Mint’s flexible pricing policy for certain products allows prices to be adjusted weekly based on the average weekly market price and the directional trend.

Gold numismatic products including the First Spouse Gold Coins, Proof Gold Eagles, Uncirculated Gold Eagle, and Proof Gold Buffalo are currently priced based on an average weekly London Fix price for gold within the $1650 to $1699.99 range. The average for the current weekly period from the prior Thursday AM to the current Wednesday AM London Fix price will likely fall within the $1,550 to $1,599.99 range. As long as the Wednesday PM price is below $1,650, then prices should be reduced by two increments, or $100 per ounce of gold content.

The one platinum numismatic product is the one ounce 2011 Proof Platinum Eagle, which is currently priced based on an average weekly London Fix price for platinum within the $1,450 to $1,549.99 range. The average for the current weekly period will likely fall within the $1,350 to $1,449.99 range. As long as the Wednesday PM price is below $1,450, then prices should be reduced by one increment, or $100.

The US Mint has generally made price changes effective around late morning on Wednesday.

More Updates to Preliminary 2012 Product Schedule

In a previous post, I shared part of the US Mint’s 2012 product schedule that was revealed on their website. They have just added two more entries showing a release date of “February” for both the Vicksburg and Chickasaw America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins.The release date for the Vicksburg America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin is now indicated as January 12, 2012. The release date for the following design featuring Chickasaw is scheduled for February 9, 2012.

There are also some indications of pricing for next year’s products, found on preliminary product pages. The US Mint shows the 2012 America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set priced at $41.95. This set contains the five quarters for the upcoming year struck in 90% silver. The 2012 America the Beautiful Quarters Proof Set is shown priced at $14.95. This set contains the clad versions of the coins.

In both cases, the prices are the same as those currently in place for the 2011-dated versions of the sets.

The information included on the US Mint’s product schedule and preliminary product schedule can sometimes change, so this information is not definitive.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Designs for 2012 Star Spangled Banner Silver Dollar and Gold Coin

Earlier this week, the United States Mint announced the designs for the 2012 Star Spangled Banner Commemorative Coins. The program includes a $5 gold coin with a maximum mintage of 100,000 and silver dollars with a maximum mintage of 500,000.

Under the authorizing legislation, the designs are to be emblematic of the War of 1812, particularly the Battle of Baltimore that formed the basis for the lyrics of the Star Spangled Banner. This became the official national anthem of the United States by congressional resolution on March 3, 1931.

The US Mint initially provided ten obverse and eight reverse design candidates for the $5 gold coin, and six obverse and nine reverse design candidates for the silver dollar. These were reviewed by the  Maryland War of 1812 Bicentennial Commission, Commission of Fine Arts (CFA), and Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee (CCAC). The final design selections were made by the Secretary of the Treasury.

The review by the CCAC had taken an unusual tract. Rather than considering the design candidates for the coins specifically indicated by the US Mint, the committee reviewed all sixteen obverse and all seventeen reverse designs together, before identifying designs for each coin respectively. They gave consideration to the designs that would produce well based on the sizes of the coins, and obverse and reverse designs that would compliment each other.

Below are the official design selections as well as information on the recommendations made by the CFA and CCAC. Comprehensive coverage of the recommendations and images of all design candidates can be seen here for the CFA and here for the CCAC.

The Star Spangled Banner $5 Gold Coin obverse depicts a naval battle scene from the War of 1812. An American ship appears in the foreground, while a damaged and fleeing British ship appears in the background. The reverse design features the opening words of the Star Spangled Banner against a background of fifteen stripes and fifteen stars. The obverse wad designed by Donna Weaver and sculpted by Joseph Menna, while the reverse was designed by Richard Masters and sculpted by Joseph Menna.

The CCAC had recommended the same obverse design that was chosen. This was initially identified by the US Mint as one of the design candidates for the silver dollar. The CCAC recommended a different design for the reverse, which included flags with fifteen stars and fifty stars shown together.

The CFA had recommended the obverse design that was actually chosen for the silver dollar. For the reverse they had recommended a design featuring an abstraction of the flag with the words “O Say Does That Star Spangled Banner Yet Wave”.

The obverse of the Star Spangled Banner Silver Dollar features a depiction of Liberty waving a flag with fifteen stars and fifteen stripes. Fort McHenry appears in the background. The reverse design depicts a waving modern American flag. The obverse was designed by Joel Iskowitz and sculpted by Phebe Hemphill, while the reverse was designed by William C. Burgard II and sculpted by Don Everhart.

The CCAC had recommended the same obverse design that was chosen. Initially, this had been identified by the US Mint as one of the design candidates for the gold coin. The CCAC also recommended the same reverse design that was chosen. Members of the committee felt that this obverse and reverse pairing “would convey a message about the endurance of the Republic and the of the flag from the time of the War of 1812 to the present.”

The CFA had recommended an obverse design featuring a large image of a ship with the inscription “Privateers in the War of 1812″ based on the high quality of the drawing. They had recommended the same reverse design that was chosen by the Treasury Secretary.

The release date for the Star Spangled Banner Commemorative Coins has not yet been announced by the United States Mint. Under the authorizing legislation, the coins may be offered only during the calendar year beginning January 1, 2012.

The release date for the other commemorative program for the coming year, the Infantry Solider Silver Dollar, has recently been indicated as February 12, 2012.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Last Chance for 2011 Commemorative Coins

The US Mint has scheduled to conclude sales of the 2011 commemorative coins on Friday, December 16, 2011 at 5:00 PM ET. Many readers have asked my opinion about this year’s commemoratives- so I wanted to provide this post with the latest available information and both the pro and con sides of the future potential.

This year’s commemorative coins include $5 gold coins, silver dollars, and clad composition half dollars featuring the U.S. Army, and $5 gold coins and silver dollars featuring the Medal of Honor. As mentioned on numerous occasions, this year’s programs include a number of coins that are poised to have extremely low mintages within the context of modern commemorative issues of the same denomination.

Throughout the modern commemorative era, there have been some issues which experienced slow sales. This may have been caused by an overabundance of other commemorative or numismatic offerings, general unpopularity of theme or design, and/or collector preference for certain versions or packaging options. Many of these overlooked or unpopular issues ironically went on to secondary market success after the low mintages were recognized. Within this light, some of the 2011 commemoratives seem to present a good opportunity.

Shown below are tables including the lowest mintage modern commemorative issues for uncirculated $5 gold coins, proof $5 gold coins, uncirculated half dollars, and proof half dollars. The numbers for the 2011 coins are based on the last available figures, which reflect sales through December 12, 2011.

(I don’t have the silver dollars in any of the charts. The Army Silver Dollars sales have reached 117,958 for proofs and 43,185 for uncirculated coins. The Medal of Honor Silver Dollars have reached 109,270 proofs and 43,414 uncirculated coins. While these are at the lower end of the mintage spectrum for commemorative silver dollars, there are plenty issues with lower mintages which do not command much of a premium. The absolute mintage low for commemorative silver dollars is all the way down at 14,497.)

Uncirculated $5 Gold Commemoratives
1997 Jackie Robinson 5,174
2001 Capitol Visitor Center 6,761
2011 Army 7,718
2011 Medal of Honor 7,910
1996 Smithsonian 9,068
1996 Olympic Flag Bearer 9,174
1996 Olympic Cauldron 9,210
Proof $5 Gold Commemoratives
2011 Army 17,002
2011 Medal of Honor 17,739
1996 Smithsonian 21,840
1997 Jackie Robinson 24,072
2001 Capitol Visitor Center 27,652
1997 Roosevelt 29,223
Uncirculated Half Dollar Commemoratives
2011 Army 38,464
1996 Olympic Swimming 49,533
1996 Olympic Soccer 52,836
2003 First Flight 57,726
Proof Half Dollar Commemoratives
2011 Army 67,454
2001 Capitol Visitor Center 77,962
2003 Fist Flight 109,710
1996 Olympic Swimming 114,315
1996 Olympic Soccer 122,412

 

Each of the prior year uncirculated $5 gold coins with a mintage of less than 10,000 commands a significant premium, which seems to bode well for this year’s coins. Only slight premiums exist for the lower mintage proof $5 gold coins, although this year’s coins may set a new absolute low. For the half dollars, essentially only the 1996 Olympic half dollars command a premium, although again this year’s coins may set a new absolute low.

Using past history as a guide, there seems to be a favorable case for the future performance of several of this year’s commemorative coins. However, past performance is not always indicative of future potential. I will provide some counterarguments to the low mintage aspect.

“Low” mintages are relative. Recently, the First Spouse Gold Coin series has experienced historically low mintages across a number of issues. While these have appreciated on the secondary market, it has not been to the extent of past low mintage gold coins. For this particular series, low mintages have become typical and will likely be experienced for the foreseeable future of the series. If future $5 gold commemorative coins continue to experience low mintages and establish a new lower norm, the 2011 issues will become less exceptional.

More collectors may be proactively buying coins in anticipation of low mintages. After seeing past issues with low sales experience huge appreciation on the secondary market, collectors are less likely to be caught off guard in a similar fashion. More of the group who appreciate the low mintages may be buying their coins from the Mint at issue prices, leaving fewer to drive prices higher on the secondary market. Compared to the mid-1990′s, there is much more timely information available, leaving less room for surprises.

Finally, collecting habits may be changing. Compared to a decade ago, assembling a complete collection of modern commemoratives (or even a particular denomination for modern commemoratives) is much more difficult. As the years have gone by, the number of issues in the series has increased. In recent years, the higher prices of gold and silver have made the coins more expensive. The reason that low mintage coins command premiums is because the same number of collectors for a particular series are forced to chase after a smaller supply of coins, driving up prices. If the number of active collectors of a series has diminished, the supply of coins would need to be that much smaller to create a similar result.

To summarize, as I have written in the past, several of the 2011 commemorative coins have potential based on their low mintages. However, there are some factors to consider which may represent a shift from the patterns of the past.