Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Gold and Platinum Product Price Increases Possible

Once again it is possible that the US Mint will increase prices for gold and platinum numismatic products. This would be the third increase of the year for gold products and the second of the year for the single platinum product.

The US Mint uses a flexible pricing policy for gold and platinum numismatic products that allows pricing adjustments to take place as often as weekly. The average market price of the metals is determined based on the London Fix prices from the prior Thursday AM to the current Wednesday AM. If the average moves into a different tier established at $50 intervals for gold and $100 intervals for platinum, and the Wednesday PM price agrees directionally, then a pricing change takes place. These pricing adjustments have usually taken place around mid-morning Wednesdays.

Based on the current pricing data, the average for gold is within the $1,700 to $1,749.99 range. In the most likely scenario, as long as the Wednesday PM London Fix Price is above $1,700, then a price increase would take place. Prices for the remaining Proof Gold Eagles, Proof Gold Buffalo, and First Spouse Gold Coins would be increased by the equivalent of $50 per ounce of gold content.

Previously this year, numismatic gold coin prices were increased on January 11 and January 25.

Based on current pricing data, the average price for platinum is within the $1,550 to $1,649.99 range. In the most likely scenario, as long as the Wednesday PM London Fix price is above $1,550, then a price increase would take place. The price of the 2011 Proof Platinum Eagle would be increased from $1,792 to $1,892.

At the start of the year, the Proof Platinum Eagle was priced at $1,692 per coin, representing the lowest price during the entire course of the offering. At the start of sales on May 26, 2011, the coins were priced at $2,092 each. Based on the latest numismatic sales report just released today, the US Mint has recorded sales of 13,192 of the coin out of the 15,000 maximum. Since the start of the year, sales have moved up by more than 1,200 coins.

Monday, January 30, 2012

The End of Circulating $1 Coin Direct Ship Program?

Late last week, the United States Mint quietly removed references to the Circulating $1 Coin Direct Ship Program from their website and marked the associated product listings as “sold out.”

The US Mint’s main page about the Presidential $1 Coin Program used to include a link to a page with information about the Direct Ship Program. The link has been removed, although the destination page is still active. (See below, before and after.) A link was also previously included within the main navigation of the product catalog section of the website. This link was also removed. Until late last week, the US Mint had listed 2011 Native American Dollar Direct Ship Rolls and James Madison Dollar Direct Ship Rolls. These were marked as sold out.

The Direct Ship Program had been introduced in June 2008 under US Mint Director Edmund Moy. The program was created in order to proactively comply with the requirement of the Presidential $1 Coin Act to remove barriers and improve circulation of the $1 coin. Under the program, individuals or businesses could order $250 boxes of $1 coins directly from the US Mint at face value with no charge for shipping. Although well intentioned, some people started to abuse the program.

In late 2009, mainstream publications reported how some individuals had used the program to earn miles or rewards on their credit cards. The coins would be ordered at face value in large quantity and subsequently deposited directly into a bank account. One individual claimed to have bought $800,000 worth of coins through the program. The US Mint attempted various tactics to curb the abuses, but every few months there would be more stories about people taking advantage of the program.

In July 2012, the US Mint finally announced that credit cards would no longer be accepted for purchases through the program, which should have essentially ended all abuses. In November 2011, a $12.50 fulfillment fee was added to the program. This fee created a deterrent to anyone actually seeking to use the program to purchase coins for the purpose of spending them at face value.

The latest data available indicated that the US Mint had distributed 244 million $1 coins through the Direct Ship Program through June 1, 2011. A survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks estimated that about 60% of these were eventually deposited at Reserve Banks, contributing to the hoard of more than 1.25 billion $1 coins in storage.

At this point, I do not have confirmation as to whether the Direct Ship Program has been officially ended, or if it is suspended, or if it will be relaunched under different rules. It would not be too surprising if the program had been ended, given its checkered history. If the US Mint had acted sooner to curb abuses, the program may have had a better chance.

Going forward, collectors will have some new bulk options for purchasing $1 coins. Within the Federal Register, the US Mint published prices for 100-coin bags ($111.95), 250-coin boxes ($275.95), and 500-coin boxes ($550.95).

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Pricing for 2012 Commemorative Coins

The United States Mint has just published pricing information for the 2012 Commemorative Coins. Prices for silver dollars remain unchanged from the prior year, gold coins will be priced according to a grid, and some different product types will be offered.

The two programs for this year feature the U.S. Army Infantry Solider and the Bicentennial of the writing of the Star Spangled Banner. The first program includes a silver dollar in proof or uncirculated versions, and the second program includes a $5 gold coin and silver dollar in proof or uncircualted versions.

As with previous commemorative coin programs, coins are available for introductory prices during a certain period before regular pricing comes into effect.

The proof silver dollars for both programs are priced at $54.95 introductory and $59.95 regular. The uncirculated silver dollars are priced at $49.95 introductory and $54.95 regular. Each silver dollar contains 0.7736 troy ounces of silver.

The $5 gold coins are priced according to a grid (see the grid here) and will be adjusted weekly based on the average weekly market price of gold. Based on the current price of gold within the $1,700 to $1,749.99 range, the proof $5 gold coins would be priced at $517.15 introductory and $522.15 regular. The uncirculated $5 gold coins would be priced at $507.15 introductory and $512.15 regular.

The publication reveals additional products for each program. The US Mint has not offered different presentation options or multi-coin sets for commemorative coins since 2009. In 2010 and 2011, commemorative coins were only offered individually in standard packaging.

A 2012 Infantry Solider Silver Dollar Defenders of Freedom Set is listed priced at $61.95. This set would likely contain one version of the silver dollar, along with historical or other information on the U.S. Army Infantry.

A 2012 Star Spangled Banner 2 Coin Set is listed with an introductory price of $567.15 and regular price of $572.15 (based on gold within the $1,700 to $1749.99 range). This set would contain the proof versions of the $5 gold coin and silver dollar. The multi-coin set price reflects reflects a discount compared to individual prices.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Quick US Mint News Updates

Numismatic Gold Coin Price Increase

Last week, a pricing increase for the United States Mint’s numismatic gold products was only narrowly avoided. This week it is much more likely that a price increase will take place.

For the current weekly period, the average market price of gold is solidly within the $1,650 to $1,699.99 range. In the most likely scenario, as long as the Wednesday PM Fix price is $1,650 or greater, then numismatic gold coin prices will be increased by one increment, or $50 per ounce of gold content. The impacted products would be the remaining 2011 Proof Gold Eagles, 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, and First Spouse Gold Coins.

Pricing changes have generally been made effective some time between mid-morning and noon on Wednesdays.

America the Beautiful Quarters Products

The United States Mint has published pricing for America the Beautiful Quarters Two Roll Sets. The two rolls containing $20 face value in quarters will be $32.95. This is a decrease from the price of $39.95 effective for last year’s releases.

For the 100-coin bags containing $25 face value in quarters, the Mint had previously indicated pricing of $35.95. This is also a decrease from the price of $49.95 charge for last year’s releases.

These pricing adjustments are a welcome change, especially considering the fact that the America the Beautiful Quarters have been difficult to obtain from circulation channels. The bags and rolls for the first release of 2012 featuring El Yunque National Park are scheduled to go on sale February 3, 2012.

Separately, the US Mint has posted an image of the Three Coin Set for the El Yunque Quarters. In my opinion the packaging design is a vast improvement from the previous version, which was simply black and white. The America the Beautiful Quarters Program in particular provides an excellent opportunity for the US Mint to incorporate images and historical information within numismatic products. Hopefully, the new design for this product is a sign of things to come.

Vicksburg Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins

Effective tomorrow, January 25, 2012 at 12:00 Noon ET, the United States Mint will remove the household ordering limit for the Vicksburg National Military Park Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins. Since the start of sales on January 12, the product has been subject to a five per household ordering limit.

According to the most recent sales data (through January 17), the US Mint has received orders for 7,861 coins out of the 35,000 maximum limit.

Pricing for the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins is currently $204.95 per coin. This pricing was established though publication in the Federal Register dated December 30, 2011, although the price was made effective for available designs on December 27. The market price of silver on these dates was $28.65 and $28.18. From the lower number, the market price of silver has now increased by nearly $4.00 per ounce. Any further increase in the market price of silver makes a pricing adjustment for the product a distinct possibility.

Unlike with numismatic gold products, the US Mint does not have their pricing criteria for silver coins explicitly stated. Product sales have been suspended without warning and reinstated with new prices. These pricing adjustments have caught some collectors by surprise.

Friday, January 20, 2012

2011-D Uncirculated Army Half Dollar

On December 16, 2011, the United States Mint concluded sales for the 2011 commemorative coins. Within weeks of that date, prices for the 2011-D Uncirculated Army Half Dollar have soared on the secondary market.

The coins have generated interest from collectors due to their mintage of 39,461, which represents the lowest mintage for a modern commemorative half dollar. Previously, the lowest mintage was held by the uncirculated version of the 1996 Olympic Swimming Half Dollar at 49,533.

Prices realized on eBay auctions over the past week for the uncirculated 2011 Army Half Dollars have covered a range from approximately $50 to $70 each. Some auctions have seen higher prices, particularly for coins graded PCGS MS69 First Strike. There have also been auctions in recent days with final prices just under $50, and even a coin listed with a Buy It Now price of $36.99, which was quickly purchased less than ten minutes after listing.

These prices compare to the last available US Mint price of $19.95 per coin. From the date of the initial release on January 31, 2011 until March 2, 2011, the coins were available at an introductory price of $15.95 per coin.

The high secondary market prices seem to have compelled more people to offer their coins for sale on eBay. In the first week of January, I remember seeing just a handful of the uncirculated Army Half Dollars listed, compared to about 80 listings right now. The higher supply of coins offered for sale may serve to dampen prices.

Besides the low mintage, another interesting aspect to the Army Half Dollar is the grading. Previously issued commemorative half dollars were produced with more of a satin or matte finish, and the special striking and handling allowed for a good number of coins to receive the highest grade of MS70 from PCGS or NGC. Using the 2008-S Bald Eagle Half Dollar as an example, the NGC population census shows 1,190 graded NGC MS 69 and 5,475 graded NGC MS 70.

The 2011 Army Half Dollars seem to have been produced with a finish resembling the brilliant finish found on the 2011 Uncirculated Set coins, which makes obtaining the highest certified grade much more unlikely. The NGC population census shows 2,008 coins graded MS 69 and just 16 graded MS70. The PCGS Population Report shows zero coins graded MS70.