Examining the West Point Silver Eagle Set Sales Data

set1As most readers are probably aware, the United States Mint has incorporated a sales counter on the product page for the 2013 West Point Silver Eagle Set. The daily updates to the counter will surely be closely watched during the course of the four week ordering window and particularly closely near the end of the window.

The counter provides an “approximation” of the total units ordered through all active sales channels and is updated each week day (excluding Federal holidays) around 3:00 PM ET. The US Mint does disclaim the data to some extent, stating “This data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed to represent accepted orders or actual sales figures.”

Last year a similar counter had been in place for the 2012 San Francisco Silver Eagle Set. The last reported figure of 251,302 was subsequently adjusted downwards by more than 10% to a final unaudited total of 224,981. The reduction was presumably related to canceled orders, declined orders, product returns, orders received after the deadline but post marked before the deadline, and/or differences between the daily approximation and actual orders.

Although the data for the 2013 West Point Silver Eagle Set is not exact, it does provide a very useful indication of product demand and lends to some comparisons with the San Francisco Silver Eagle Set.

Shown below is the daily sales data for the West Point Set to date. The first number column represents the daily change, while the second number column represents the reported cumulative sales total.

Increase Total Sales
5/10/2013 138,514
5/13/2013 44,259 182,773
5/14/2013 4,768 187,541
5/15/2013 4,185 191,726
5/16/2013 1,926 193,652

After a white-hot opening of 182,773 units sold through the opening day and weekend, sales quickly calmed down in the following three days. This pattern has been typical for most US Mint numismatic offerings, with the first few days of sales providing a strong indication of how the offering will fare over the course of the period of availability.

The 2012 San Francisco Set had sold 115,059 units during the opening day and weekend. After this point, sales similarly slowed bottoming at an increase of 1,210 about ten days into the ordering window. Sales began to move up strongly in the final week of the offering, which saw the addition of 75,714 in total sales. During this final week, the daily increases were large until cumulative sales approached the 250,000 mark. At that point, the daily increases quickly fell off. (Full data from the SF Set can be found here.)

Using percentages for some of the SF Set data, the opening day and weekend sales accounted for 45.8% of the unadjusted sales total. The final week accounted for 30.1% of the unadjusted final sales total.

Will the 2013 West Point Set follow a similar trajectory? If the opening day and weekend sales account for a similar percentage of overall sales, this would put the final total close to 400,000 units.

Such a sales total might be too optimistic. The excitement of the new enhanced uncirculated finish may have driven more sales to the opening days from collectors who wanted to be among the first to receive the sets (and dealers who wanted to be the first to market the sets). If this is the case, daily sales increases for the duration of the ordering window and particularly in the final week would be lower compared to the San Francisco Set offering.

A key level to watch will be the 250,000 sales mark, which was the maximum mintage established for the 2006 20th Anniversary Silver Eagle Set. Although the enhanced uncirculated Silver Eagle will be the first of its kind, some are likely keeping tabs on how the set will fall into the mintage hierarchy of the four anniversary sets.

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Comments

  1. high low silver says

    I went to a coin show last month and a dealer had a couple for $179 with milk spots on both. I asked him about it and he had no answer. I couldn’t believe someone would have kept those coins. I don’t follow or purchase the ATB 5oz so I’m just telling everyone what I encountered.They reminded me of a large off quality Maple leaf.

  2. Eddie says

    Has anyone received their White Mtn. 5 ozer? you know the Mint has them made or at least should. So what is the hold up.

  3. Frankie says

    My advice would be to keep the 5oz ATB’s unless you’re desperate for the money – the mintage of these is so low in comparison to all other US Mint silver coins that in a few years from now they should sell at a decent premium, esp. condsidering the ATB series will continue until 2021. Loads of new collectors will join and they want to complete their series which will drive demand. Of course, prices may be at the current level for another five years…
    I’d say if you have the money to buy a one ounce gold bullion, don’t do it and buy the complete set of numismatic & bullion ATB releases in that year – if you do the math, you get roughly 10 5oz silver coins for the price of a one ounce bullion. Also, if you decide to resell again in a few years, it’ll be easier to sell something for $200 than $2000. That’s just my two cents’ worth! :)

  4. fosnock says

    @Frankie – I like your analysis but let me throw a monkey wrench into it…The FS series has lower mintages with the more popular FS coins coming up (Can you say Jackie O). The reverse Buffalo proof already looks like a winner…

  5. Hawkster says

    In regard to the 5 oz. ATB’s, which I do not pursue, I would think the bullion versions would be the ones to obtain. The secondary collector market may be somewhat limited, but they can always be sold for their bullion value down the road. In other words, they are another way of buying and selling bullion.

  6. Shutter says

    The FS series has lower mintages with the more popular FS coins coming up

    FS is different for 3 reasons.
    1. It’s extremely expensive. At current prices it’s more than $7,000 per year.
    2. There are people who object to having individuals on coins. That’s why Presidential Liberty series is of interest to some people who don’t care about FS coins in general.
    3. With 4 exceptions, these individuals are on coins merely because they married some guy who later became presidents. God only knows why Alice Paul is on there. Not really an indication of accomplishment.

  7. Hawkster says

    Shutter:

    Reason #3 is why I never had any interest in these series. These ladies were merely married to the presidents, in some cases obscure presidents. While these ladies may have been fine individuals, they are hardly deserving of being commemorated on a gold coin.

    The only First Spouse that had major accomplishments in her own right was Hillary Clinton. And Hilary might not be done yet.

  8. e says

    i wonder if there will be a reverse proof of the kennedy half dollar next year for the 50th anniversity

  9. george glazener says

    Yeah, sure, lying thru her teeth about Benghazi to get her master re-elected was a pretty slick accomplishment. And let’s not forget the Whitewater scandal. And don’t blame me for being starting this, I’m only replying to an ugly turn in the thread.

  10. Dan in Fla says

    Ugly is in the eye of the beholder.
    The new numbers are out at coinupdate.

  11. Fosnock says

    @Shutter – No argument just throwing it out there, I could not collect the FS coins, but I was tempted to buy a few (those with classical coin designs like Andrew Jackson) when gold was a lot cheaper, but I do collect the ATBs

  12. Fosnock says

    @Shutter – Also given the choice between the reverse buffalo and 10 ATBs, I would have to go with the buffalo

  13. thePhelps says

    Hawkster – I am no Hillary fan either. As for the other FS – there have been many who did very good things while their husbands were president. I mean we are currently fighting obesity one city at a time. In the 80′s we just said no. That said – I have no interest in spending that kind of money on obscure figures attached to a US coin. I thought they should have done them in bronze and called it a day.

    On the other side – I have a very nice set of Dolley Madison commemorative silver dollars that are just beautiful.

  14. Hawkster says

    the Phelps,
    Like her or not, Hillary did serve as Secretary of State. Alright, granted, it was after her stint as First Spouse, not concurrent.
    There have been many women in the private sector that have done good, if not great, things for our country, often unheralded. Many have stepped up to lead the fight against breast cancer, for example. They are the true, unsung heroes.
    And yes, I agree that bronze medallions for the First Spouses would have been more appropriate.

  15. Jon in CT says

    Hawkster wrote on May 21, 2013 at 1:29 pm:
    The only First Spouse that had major accomplishments in her own right was Hillary Clinton.

    It’s clear that US History hasn’t taught very well in schools for the last 20 years.

    Consider First Spouse Edith who married Woodrow in 1915. After he won re-election in 1918 running on the slogan “He kept us out of the war,” she essentially became his Chief of Staff, deciding who and what he saw. After his stroke in 1919, she and his physician were the only people allowed to be with the President. After that point, she was de facto President of the United States and decided which papers Woodrow would sign. One of the rejected designs for her FS coin shows her holding a small document (AKA “check book”) for Woodrow to sign. It was based on the first public picture of him released after his stroke. And not only did she actually run the country for awhile, she was the person most responsible for the passage of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution because she wouldn’t let Woodrow resign after his stroke, which was always cited during the debates about the Amendment’s passage.

  16. high low silver says

    If you want some REAL dirt, just check out what Mary Todd did !……FS ????? No Way !!

  17. george glazener says

    Jon in CT;
    Well said Sir. Yes, indeed, Edith Wilson was a very important part of her husband’s 2nd term. Look at Abigail Adams too, and Dolley Madison. Equals in every way to their husbands. C-Span is doing a wonderful series right now on the First Ladies. Last night they featured Garfield and Arthur, and although Arthur had no proper First Lady, there was no mention of Alice Paul. Interesting..

  18. john says

    the people that got 35000 will pick them,on 6-17-13,off to be grade that night.and on the show the next day.

  19. says

    The final mintage will be determined by the cost of the SP 69 and SP 70
    Sets that are offered by the people who sell these graded sets.
    If they are relatively inexpensive I along with others will buy the graded sets and cancel the ones that are on order there by lowering the final mintage

  20. stephen m says

    Cochisz, the mint may be slow but they do catch on. Be prepared for quicker shipments on this set than were the SF sets.

  21. says

    Stephan,with a September ship date I think I will have plenty of time to
    Cancel if I need to. Also I can take what I. Buy and don’t want to the LCS and he will normally give me cost less shipping.

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