2014 Presidential Dollar Four Coin Sets, Possible Price Decrease for Gold Products

Today, September 16, 2014 at 12:00 Noon ET, the United States Mint started accepting orders for the 2014 Presidential $1 Four Coin Sets. There are separate four coin sets available from both the Philadelphia and Denver Mints facilities.

Four Coin Set

Each set contains circulating quality examples of the 2014-dated Presidential Dollars featuring Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. The coins feature a portrait of the President on the obverse along with inscriptions indicating the order of Presidency and dates served. The common reverse design features a rendition of the Statue of Liberty.

The coins included in the sets are “circulating quality” which means that they should be similar in quality to the coins found in the bags, rolls, and boxes that have been offered for each respective release. Other products such as the 2014 Uncirculated Coin Set, 2014 Presidential $1 Coin Uncirculated Set, and 2014 Annual Uncirculated Dollar Coin Set contain “uncirculated quality” coins, which are typically of higher quality.

The Presidential $1 Four-Coin Set was introduced in 2012, when the series ceased distribution of new issues to the channels of circulation. The four coin sets seem to be positioned as low price point to acquire one example of each coin of the series issued for the year.

Each set is priced at $12.95. There is a product limit of 15,000 units each for the Philadelphia and Denver Sets.

The 2013-dated sets have reached sales of 15,557 for the Philadelphia set and 11,753 for the Denver set.

Possible Price Decrease for Gold Numismatic Products

gold-jfkBased on the available data, there is a possibility that the prices for the United States Mint’s numismatic gold products may be reduced tomorrow. As most readers will know, the US Mint uses a flexible pricing system which allows numismatic gold and platinum products to be updated based on the average weekly price of the metals.

The pricing system utilizes the average weekly price of the metal based on the London Fix prices from the prior Thursday AM to the current Wednesday AM. If the average moves into a higher or lower tier established at $50 intervals, then a price change may potentially take place. A secondary criteria requires that the Wednesday PM Fix price must agree directionally with any potential change.

The average gold price for the current period will likely fall into the $1,200 to $1,249.99 range. This is one tier lower than the range used to establish current prices. As long as the Wednesday PM fix price is below $1,250 to fulfill the secondary criteria, then the price decrease would take place.

The price of the 2014 50th Anniversary Kennedy Half Dollar Gold Proof Coin would be reduced from $1,240 to $1,202.50. This would represent the lowest US Mint pricing for the product since it was released on August 5.

Other products impacted by a price change would include the proof and uncirculated American Gold Eagles, Proof American Gold Buffalo, and First Spouse Gold Coins. Each product would see its price decreased proportionally by $50 for each ounce of gold content.

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Comments

  1. cagcrisp says

    Guys there is something on the Mint’s new Shopping Site that is “Order Discount”???

    (First off get a pair of glasses or someone that can see really good because it is Small Print)
    Go to the New Shopping Site page and on the Visual Tours, click the “Redesigned Checkout Page”. On the Left you can see they have “dummied up” a purchase of a Gold Buffalo and an ASE for total Price of $1,683.95.
    It shows: Items (2) Subtotal $1,683.95
    Under that they have a line “Order Discount”. $0.00
    Then it has Shipping and Handling
    Then you have Order Total

    I have no idea how you can get Order Discount but at least it shows up….

  2. cagcrisp says

    And…..In the Above example the Order Total is $1,688.90 reflecting Shipping price of $4.95.

    So maybe the $4.95 stays the same….

  3. VA Rich says

    Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program (subject to product availability)

    Under the current terms and conditions of this program, a FIVE PERCENT DISCOUNT is applied to all purchases of $5,000.00 or more of qualifying coins and products. Additionally, a shipping and handling charge of one percent of domestic orders and two percent for international orders will be assessed on each order processed.

    First Spouse Gold Coins
    United States Mint Proof Set®
    United States Mint Silver Proof Set™
    United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set®
    American Eagle Gold and Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins
    American Buffalo Gold Proof Coin
    United States Mint Proof Set®
    United States Mint Silver Proof Set®
    United States Mint Uncirculated Set®
    United States Mint America the Beautiful Quarters Proof Set™
    United States Mint America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set™

    To purchase numismatic products through the Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program, an applicant must attest to the fact that it is one of the following:

    a licensed full-time “coin dealer” (any state-licensed firm or company engaged in the commercial sale of coins via storefront, coin shows or online)
    a licensed business involved in the precious metals or numismatic coin industry
    a licensed retailer, bank, credit union or other financial institution willing to expand its business into the numismatic coin industry

    http://www.usmint.gov/bulk/

  4. cagcrisp says

    If the new system is to go into effect on October 1st, why would the Mint have on the NEW Shopping Site “2014 Savings 10% discount on select enrollment products for new subscribers”.

  5. gary says

    @cagcrisp… I wouldn’t read a whole lot of meaning in that dummy for hope of a discount. This dummy (me) interprets it only as a sample to give me some idea of the paradigm as to how the new web site would be laid out, nothing more. Yes, they do have a line that says “Order Discount” and I think the discount is already expressed as $0.00.

  6. Sith says

    @cagcrisp – Maybe because when it was being developed they did not know if the discount would continue.

  7. VA Bob says

    The low price is only bad if you are selling now. If I worried about every gold coin I bought at a higher level, I’d be having a heart attack now. Consider lows a buying opportunity.

  8. cagcrisp says

    @Sith, this was all sent out on the Same page. One spot it says “Effective October 1, 2014, the 10% discount applied to the current Subscription Program will no longer be offered.”
    On the same Page it states “2014 Savings 10% discount on select enrollment products for new subscribers”.

    Yes. the 10% discount on the Old subscription program is gone. I get that. and the Enrollment program takes the place of the Old Subscription program. I get that. I just don’t see where definitively it say’s that “There will Not be 10% discount of the New Enrollment program”.

    If Everyone on here is correct then if I was the Mint I would have worded it “The Old Subscription Program will be the New Enrollment program and the New Enrollment program will Not have the 10% discount”. NO 10% DISCOUNTS AFTER OCTOBER 1ST, 2014…PERIOD…

  9. Sith says

    @cagcrisp – People called the Mint, it gone. Check the older thread if you wish to confirm what was posted.

  10. Pittsburgh P says

    Cag that means nothing. If you look at purchases made now the same thing appears “Order Discount” – as there is also a place to enter a coupon code… Have you ever had or seen a coupon for the Mint? This always says 0.00$ for the order discount now & I’m sure it’ll be the same when the new system is up and running. Its probably there if a coupon is ever used or for discounts such as VaRich pointed out if those are still valid.

    It’s a nice thought but when I spoke to a CSR last night I was told no more subscription discounts and Gary said he also spoke to a CSR and was told the same thing…your looking at an example purchase & I don’t doubt there will be a spot for a discount just not the ones we are use to or anything similar…

  11. Pittsburgh P says

    Cag why would they word it “NO 10% DISCOUNTS AFTER OCTOBER 1ST, 2014…PERIOD…”

    That is overkill and ridiculous… It is pretty clear as is to me at least. People would complain – what does the mint think we are idiots! 🙂

  12. Pittsburgh P says

    Cag you said this was on the same page:

    On the same Page it states “2014 Savings 10% discount on select enrollment products for new subscribers”.

    But I can’t find it anywhere on that page – can you point it out so I can see it in context?

    I looked at the sample bill also & the order discount is the same as it is now… The 4.95$ shipping says budget shipping! What’s that entail? Pony express 😉

  13. Jon in CT says

    Pittsburgh P wrote on September 16, 2014 at 4:08 PM:

    It’s a nice thought but when I spoke to a CSR last night I was told no more subscription discounts and Gary said he also spoke to a CSR and was told the same thing…

    So, you people spoke to one or more Novitex employees on the phone, people who are likely out of a job within the next two weeks and have very little to lose if they decide to dish out bogus “information.” And you swallow what they say will happen when PFSWeb takes over — hook, line and sinker?

    It may be true, but not because some phone jockey in Indiana says so.

  14. cagcrisp says

    @Pittsburgh P, You look at the right side of the Banner on the video and then again it is listed on Every Banner on any page you click on the Visual Tour..Same Banner…

  15. Pittsburgh P says

    Jon I usually just ignore you since your a moron & follow VaRich’s third rule but figured I’ll acknowledge you one last time. If you read this blog when I stated I spoke with the “phone jockey” last night I said that the info they give isn’t always accurate so take it how you will(not in those words) – check it out.

    I also liked the website you called worthless in the last thread.

  16. Pittsburgh P says

    Cag I see that banner on the top of the pics now… Very intertesting. That does make it seem like there is some sort of discount. Guess it’s another Mint mystery that we’ll have to wait and see!
    I think the info page was clear but with this IDK.

  17. gary says

    Jon, is it sunny there in CT right now? Take a look & let us know! LOL
    Well actually, the CSR I spoke with with clarity with the questions I asked about and even in some detail about it so I guess I am naive & stupid to entertain any validity to it. I do have a character flaw with a leaning toward trusting people until or unless they prove otherwise to me. I’ve been burned sometimes from it. You surmise so easily with rubbish about people “who are likely out of work” and assume that the average person deliberately wants to “dish out bogus information” and then completely invalidate yourself with “it may be true” and finish with an insult to CSRs being mere phone jockeys. Get off your oh-so-high horse once in a while!

  18. cagcrisp says

    @ Pittsburg P, I called CS and they told me they were “aware” of the discrepancy between the two Wordings and as yet “They have not been told which is correct”.

  19. GoldFishin says

    @Pitt P. – It’s not even Friday yet and Jon is already on the sauce! Plus, you may have indirectly insulted his new girlfriend, PMSWEB….he talks about this thing more than my mother-in-law talks about her pet poodle! 🙂 I hope it is everything he hopes it will be or we are all going to experience the painful effects of Jon’s breakup with a “fulfillment center.”

  20. bg35765 says

    A couple threads back I was asked to post my grades on my gold Kennedys when I got them. PCGS graded all five of them a 69.

    I am the third “collector’s club” member that I know of that got all five coins graded 69. As you can imagine I am not happy about that, and I’ll have a follow-up post in the next couple of days about the mathematical probability of that happening.

  21. Pittsburgh P says

    Gary, as you do, I also take people at there word. I do not feel its a terrible character flaw to have. Much better than the ones from Jon we have seen 😉 I have had different Mint CSR tell me different things about the same thing though. I don’t know if they purposefully do it but would like to think they don’t.

    Cag nothin new there huh 🙂

  22. eddie says

    I have read on here so many times where so many of you have called the Mint and spoke to someone and said that they didn’t know what they were talking about let alone know what was going on.

  23. Pittsburgh P says

    GF yes it will be bad 😉 maybe thats why he us hitting it hard so early in the week… Well he has his cats(I don’t know why but I picture him in a dark basement with only the computer to light his way with a few dozen cats by his side…)

  24. GoldFishin says

    @Pitt P. – I picture him with a basement full of gerbils on one side of the room and pythons on the other. 🙂

  25. Jon in CT says

    bg35765 wrote on September 16, 2014 at 5:17 PM:

    A couple threads back I was asked to post my grades on my gold Kennedys when I got them. PCGS graded all five of them a 69.

    I am the third “collector’s club” member that I know of that got all five coins graded 69. As you can imagine I am not happy about that, and I’ll have a follow-up post in the next couple of days about the mathematical probability of that happening.

    OMG! Am I about to be treated to the first real-life use of Student’s t-test since I graduated from school?

  26. eddie says

    Which one of these is better to store you ASE’s in
    1 Cap-Tube & 20 Direct Fit H-40 Air-Tite Coin Holder Capsules
    or
    1 Cap-Tube & 20 Black Ring 40mm Air-Tite Coin Holder Capsules.
    I am thinking about getting the one without the black ring in it. Anyone know which is better ?

  27. eddie says

    It is kind of odd that all 5 of his were graded 69. I guess it depends on which day and times it was right? You would think most of the proofs should be 70’s especially the Kennedy halves.

  28. Pittsburgh P says

    Eddie I wasn’t goin to say that but….

    About the capsules I don’t like the ones with black rings & use the direct fits for all my coins.

    Bg sorry to hear about your luck – I’m sure the probability isn’t high but with PCGS maybe it is.

  29. GoldFishin says

    @Eddie-I prefer the Direct Fit H40 without the black or white rings. Just bought two dozen yesterday. A couple of reasons I prefer them…. the H40’s are smaller taking up less space and you can see the edges of the coins which I like to be able to see. I have always purchased the direct fit capsules without the rings, but I guess it is just personal preference. I have some of the black rings air-tites from purchases and they are fine, but I have never been sure about the material the rings are made of, are they indeed inert? I don’t trust that they will always be. It really depends on how much you trust the manufacturer and I personally don’t trust anything that comes out of China.

  30. eddie says

    @PP
    Laughing my ass off!!!
    Thanks for the advice about the tubes.

    @GF
    Thanks for the advice and I was thinking the way you are about the ring and being able to actually see your coins.

  31. Boz says

    Price chop would be nice as held off getting the Roosevelt gold in anticipation of another reduction. Seems like a cut is silver eagles and ATB 5 oz is also overdue.

  32. Jon in CT says

    Boz wrote on September 16, 2014 at 6:33 PM:

    Price chop would be nice as held off getting the Roosevelt gold in anticipation of another reduction. Seems like a cut is silver eagles and ATB 5 oz is also overdue.

    I agree that prices of the Mint’s silver products should be reduced to reflect the current price of silver. The price of silver hasn’t been this low since Aug, 2010.

  33. gary says

    @bg35765… I’ll take a stab at that mathematical probability. Assuming the 3 likeliest grades of 70, 69, 68 only, I’d say you had less than a 7% chance to get every one of 5 coins returned as all PF69 and likewise to have them all come back as either PF70 or PF68.

    Surprises not. I saw a nice MS 1920 Maine Centennial Half Dollar on Ebay a couple of days ago that had a PCGS label on it describing it as a 1920 Pilgrim half. The seller seemed to think he really had an outstanding rare error label and was offering it BIN for some $4,000+

  34. Hawkster says

    While everyone is lamenting the loss of the discount subscription program, I’d like to bring attention to the 5 oz P (uncirculated) ATB’s commanding significant premiums on ebay. Last night, for example, a 2014 Smoky Mountain in OGP sold for $207.50. Not a bad profit for the seller, who probably bought it for the $139.45 subscription price.
    If ebay is a good indicator, the interest in these pucks is getting stronger.

  35. Jon in CT says

    gary wrote on September 16, 2014 at 6:58 PM:

    @bg35765… I’ll take a stab at that mathematical probability. Assuming the 3 likeliest grades of 70, 69, 68 only, I’d say you had less than a 7% chance to get every one of 5 coins returned as all PF69 and likewise to have them all come back as either PF70 or PF68.

    It appears you have made the utterly unrealistic assumption that the total population of Kennedy gold coins sold so far by Mint has the following real distribution: 1/3 deserve to be graded 70, 1/3 deserve to be graded 69, and 1/3 deserve to be graded 68.

  36. Eagle One says

    Jon in CT – If you had 30 Gold-Ws that came back PR-69; then I would be wildly suspicious of that distribution. There are too many variables or contributions to consider that would certainly influence the data. Also, there are a number of influences that can produce trends in the data too. For example, grading conditions at the show vs. grading conditions in the grading room. The first 40k coins produced in one production run vs. several smaller individual production runs. The first coin graded has no grading reference and the latest coin graded has a considerable grading history as a reference. Also, if the coin is a high end money coin; I believe PCGS will grade it to the low side to pad their guarantee. If you want to see something annoying and highly statistically suspicious, below are the grading results for the Five 2011 25th Anniversary Silver Eagle Sets that I sent in for First Strike Grading back in 2011. I ordered three sets from the mint and then two sets. They arrived on different days. Notice that each individual type of graded coin demonstrates some variance and has a notable distribution. However, the High End Money Coin of the set (2011-P Reverse Proof) demonstrates no variance – odd, unnatural, and uniform at PR-69.

    1 1 2011 $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    1 2 2011 $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    1 3 2011 $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    1 4 2011 $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    1 5 2011 $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69

    2 1 2011-S $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    2 2 2011-S $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    2 3 2011-S $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    2 4 2011-S $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    2 5 2011-S $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69

    3 1 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69
    3 2 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    3 3 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    3 4 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA MS70
    3 5 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA MS69

    4 1 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA PR70DC
    4 2 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA PR69DC
    4 3 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA PR69DC
    4 4 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA PR69DC
    4 5 2011-W $1 Silver Eagle USA PR70DC

    5 1 2011-P $1 Silver Eagle Reverse PR USA PR69
    5 2 2011-P $1 Silver Eagle Reverse PR USA PR69
    5 3 2011-P $1 Silver Eagle Reverse PR USA PR69
    5 4 2011-P $1 Silver Eagle Reverse PR USA PR69
    5 5 2011-P $1 Silver Eagle Reverse PR USA PR69

    After a close examination of my 2014-W Gold that graded PCGS-69, I concluded that it was possibly the centering that resulted in the 69 grade. As for NGC, they are not that particular about the centering on the Kennedy coins. My coin probably would have graded 70 if I sent it to NGC. Shooting for PCGS 70’s have never worked out for me in the past. I prefer to buy them or trade up for them. Same thing applies to early cameos and deep cameos.

  37. Clark says

    Question for other BHoF collectors: Other than ’97 Jackie Robinson and ’95 Atlanta Olympics commems, are there any other baseball related coins from the US Mint?

    After I stumbled upon an inexpensive MS69 unc Jackie Robinson $5 this weekend, I decided to place it and a PF69 prf Robinson $5 in the collectors box I bought for some of my gold and silver BHoFs. I thought I could easily make a complete collection of modern U.S. baseball coins by adding these and the clad ’95 commem, and any other baseball coins I can’t think of. Thanks.

  38. gary says

    Yes Jon, I have made utterly unrealistic assumptions in the past & in all probability will make some in the future. However, in this instance anyway, you have made the utterly unrealistic assumption that I have in fact made an utterly unrealistic assumption. I could have included all Mint State grades from 0 to 67 as well I guess but I admit I simplified it with just 3 grades. Without involving string theory math and allowances for possible alternate universes I simply pre-assigned 5 coins 70, 69,68 and threw em in a hat. 15 coins in all, and in 100 (yes I know, just 100 tries… but life is short!) random 5 coin picks from the hat I got 6.66% chance of getting actually any combination of grades to a desired outcome. At that, I am probably making the utterly unrealistic assumption that I could be correct on this but should add that I definitely and utterly don’t care, non-the-less!

  39. Eagle One says

    Jon in CT – The Student-t test (also known as the Gosset-t test) is used to determine if the means of two samples are similar or if a sample was actually taken from the same population. This requires you to calculate the standard deviation of your sample. Unfortunitatly, since there is no variance in your sample data, where all of the score values in the sample are identical (69), standard deviation will = zero. This results in a zero in the denominator for the t test equation. Given, t-test = x-bar/(s\sqrt n), where x-bar is the sample mean of the data, n is the sample size, and s is the sample standard deviation. Your sample size will need to be larger and MUST include some variance (a 68 or some 70s). You should collect data from everyone that had their Gold Ws graded by PCGS to reach a sample size of at least 30. Then do the math. The result will be a probability. I would be curious myself to the result.

  40. Eagle One says

    Forgot, then rerun the t-test equation on the PCGS population data for all of the Gold Ws ever graded and compare the t-test statistic.

  41. Jerry Diekmann says

    Maybe Jon in CT should just change his handle to “Negative Ned” – then it would be easier to scroll over his comments=complaints. Has he every said anything nice about anything?

  42. Jerry Diekmann says

    Clark – the 1992 Olympics silver dollar shows Nolan Ryan throwing a pitch – nice looking coin. The Mint denies it is Nolan Ryan but it matches perfectly a photograph of him pitching. I don’t know if he ever sued the Mint and the designer for using his picture.

  43. simon says

    Clark : Other than ’97 Jackie Robinson and ’95 Atlanta Olympics commems, are there any other baseball related coins from the US Mint?

    I believe that the 1992 Olympics has a Nolan Ryan look alike on the Ob.

    Grading Stats : Grading, particularly in the case of PCGS is highly questionable and very subjective.

  44. gary says

    One thing I have learned in collecting for over 50 years is that grading opinions can, and will change over time, sometimes looser, sometimes harder and sometimes back and forth. The 3rd party graders real value is mostly in authentication of older coins for me. As to a grade, it was and will always be a subjective issue (i.e.: only what you hope is an informed opinion from a qualified numismatist. Modern U.S. Coins need no authentication, the COA is right there from the Mint. The Sheldon number system is an attempt to quantify scientifically something which is purely, and can only be, subjective (an opinion.) CAC came along & adds yet another glass in the smoke and mirrors subjectivity as it is just an opinion to support another opinion. For all I know, the grading of modern coins can be arbitrary and capricious as one extreme, to the other extreme that every coin receives a strict process of due diligence in determining proper grades. Having seen quite a few coins graded way off the mark for both circulated classic and modern legal tender non-circulating, sprinkle in the few that are not even labelled with the basic correct coin description and that’s how I concluded that to collect U.S. modern coins was OGP (or not at all) for me.

  45. Jon in CT says

    Jerry Diekmann wrote on September 16, 2014 at 8:29 PM:

    Wow, we have some statistics experts in our group.

    I guess you must be talking about descriptive statistics, because there’s little evidence, so far, people here are familiar with (much less expert in) inferential statistics.

  46. Pittsburgh P says

    Simon the 95′ Atlanta olympic coin was baseball – it’s clad though. Idk if they made a softball one or any in silver…

  47. Pittsburgh P says

    Negative Ned strikes again! Put the silly juice down, feed your cats or snake or your cat to your snake for all I care. No one cares about your obvious lack of knowlege in statistics or coins or posts. Go to bed… “someone” is getting cold? 🙂

  48. Jon in CT says

    gary wrote on September 16, 2014 at 7:45 PM:

    ,,, yada … yada … I am probably making the utterly unrealistic assumption that I could be correct on this but should add that I definitely and utterly don’t care, non-the-less!

    Yep, That final, feeble, attempt at the simple word nonetheless (which can’t possibly be a typo) tells me I’m wasting my time on yet another mental midget. Carry on.

  49. Mike says

    I’m a Club Member from PCGS. I collect First Spouse Coins. I have sent in approx. 30 First Spouse Proof coins to get them graded over the last two years and all of them came back Proof 69. (Not one Pr 70). I decided to purchase my Proof 70s off of Ebay because, If you watch PCGS’s population, Approx the first 100 graded coins 90 percent are Proof 70’s. (Which are the Big Boys Coins). When the Members start sending their coins in the Populations on the Pr 69s sky rocket….. I am not a Coin grader by no means, but the last few Proof coins that I sent in to PCGS are far Superior than the Proof 70s I purchased off Ebay.. So, I quit sending them to get graded… I’ll buy them on Ebay.

  50. Clark says

    Thanks, Jerry, Simon and PittsP. I’ll be sure to add the ’92 silver dollar. It will be a nice collection complemented by the facts that Robinson (1962) and Ryan (1999) were U.S. players and HoF inductees. It all ties together nicely. I wish all collections were this easy to assemble.

  51. A&L Futures says

    @ my MintNewsBlog family

    Good evening.

    I don’t know if what I’m about to ask is appropriate for a Numismatic blog, but ya’ll are about the closest family I’ve got. I’ve recently learned that a dear friend of mine, has a daughter, whose in desperate need of my help.

    Now I’m not asking for your money, but I realize that many of us are connected to people who (like all of us) really love coins. Well, I happen to have a pretty nice coin up on FleaBay. Many of you, over the last 72 hours have commented on it. I happen to be the Seller of the PCGS 2014-P SP69 First Strike Clad Kennedy.

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/PCGS-2014-P-SP69-First-Strike-50th-Anniversary-JFK-Kennedy-Clad-0-50-Coin-K14-/131295126624?

    I’d like to sell this ASAP, to which ALL PROCEEDS will go to help out Sierra. http://www.gofundme.com/eahth8

    ————————–(break)————————-

    @ Michael et. al,

    If this is not appropriate, I apologize. I simply didn’t know where else to turn. If you need to take down this blog comment, I completely understand. Again, I didn’t know how else to approach this.

    //signed//
    A&L Futures

  52. GoldFishin says

    @Mike & Bg- Mike, you have a very credible point. I try not to come off as some kind of conspiracy theorist, but after I saw the JFK gold 70 percentages coming out of Chicago ANA, Denver, and Philly were almost 90%, I quietly decided that if I was going to send coins in to be graded, PCGS would not get my coins. Either the US Mint prescreened the coins and only sent their best examples( which means they gave preferential treatment to the show customers and TPG’s) or PCGS was awarding 70’s regardless of coin condition. Either way, I had the uneasy feeling that somehow the 70 grade numbers would return to the average percentages that are usually obtained with a proof coin at the expense of subsequent submitters. VA Rich’s PCGS updates have shown that this is exactly what it happening. Conspiracy or coincidence?

  53. Sith says

    Has anyone have a modern gold graded PF-68? I know they must exsist but I can’t recall seeing one.

    @Mike – I agree with you that it is cheaper to buy the 70’s than to send them to be graded, my questions is, based on your experience why not call it shenanigans and just keep them in OGP?

  54. VA Rich says

    bg – thanks for posting your grades, though so sorry to hear the results. I asked for your input as well as Eagle One’s and any others (& thanks Mike for posting above) as I’m into my first year as a Collectors Club member and trying to make sense of the results that I’ve received based off BHoFs and a few JFKs. I knew my results over the weekend though wanted to see the coins in hand before chiming in and see what others were receiving.

  55. Clark says

    Hey thanks, Dusty. It probably was the one you were watching. I owe Michael a big ‘thank you’ because he posted the auction on the right margin of the blog page this weekend. I couldn’t believe I got an unc gold Jackie Robinson in MS69 condition for only $1525. I’m completely stoked about it. Of course I ended up spending more because I had to get the proof companion to go with it, but they’re a lot more affordable and it’s a fine set now.

  56. gary says

    Dustyroads! Don’t keep us all in suspense about unlocking the mystery! Please!
    Yes, but a female what??? LOL

  57. silverhawk357 says

    Just ordered 5oz Everglades on the subscription program. Yea, they don’t guarantee the price but they still list it at 139.95 in the description. Why do that if they intend to erase the discount Oct 1st? Also, on the order form they list it as “in stock” but no picture or even price- – listed as “0.00”. I see the warning that they can end the sub program or change prices any time. At least they tell me I can cancel before they ship. I ordered a ton of other stuff on subscription, no changes or problems.

    A real business would get a lot of complaints doing what the Mint does every day. Pays to have a monopoly.
    Crazy Mint….

    I am also on the bulk buyer program. 5% discount, 1% shipping charge. I call that a 4% discount. Need to order $5000.00 to make it happen. And joe anybuddy gets 10% on the sub program? All the good stuff isn’t on the bulk program anyway !!

  58. Eagle One says

    I went to the PCGS population report to get the pop data on the 2014-W Gold. However, I could not find anything on the W and the UNCs. Yet, I remember seeing the UNC pop data before. Maybe this is due to my low grade membership. If someone could get the PCGS 2014-W pop data, I could accurately compute the statistical probability of getting 5 out of 5 PR-69s. This would be an empirical analysis based upon historical data. I will need all of the numbers. Total graded, total number of 70s, total number of 69s, total number of 68s and so on. A link or a copy and paste would be fine.

  59. Jon in CT says

    silverhawk357 wrote on September 16, 2014 at 10:00 PM:

    I am also on the bulk buyer program. 5% discount, 1% shipping charge. I call that a 4% discount. Need to order $5000.00 to make it happen. And joe anybuddy gets 10% on the sub program? All the good stuff isn’t on the bulk program anyway !!

    So, none of this stuff, which is part of the bulk purchase program, is the good stuff?
    • First Spouse Gold Coins
    • Proof Set
    • Silver Proof Set
    • Uncirculated Coin Set
    • American Eagle Gold and Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins
    • American Buffalo Gold Proof Coin
    • Proof Set
    • Silver Proof Set
    • Uncirculated Set
    • America the Beautiful Quarters Proof Set
    • America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set

  60. Ikaika says

    @ bg35765

    All of your 5 coins came back 69, yet the first 2 that Mr. Hendrickson from Silvertowne submitted at the ANA were 70’s. What are the chances of this happening?

  61. VA Rich says

    bg, Eagle, & Mike – Of my 5 JFKs, 3 were sent back and later cancelled. Of those 3, two were defective with bad spots visibly by the unaided eye at a foot distance, and the 3rd had this bubble-like scratch thing going on on the obverse, no way I was going to plunk $1,240 into a coin that should have been caught by QA and the population at the time was grading ~90%.

    I picked up a 3rd coin that I knew was a solid coin and sent them off. Prior to sending, I went over them really well using direct sunlight, halogen and LED – I’m big on various lights and find that strong direct sunlight works best for me. I also like to really find a coins trouble spots and then back out of it through using various loupes, it works well for me and takes the initial guess work out of it. For example, I’ll use a 30x LED loupe to search the coin and then back down to a 20x and 10x – if it passes my 20/20 and a 10x, then I know it should be good.

    So I looked these 3 coins over, as well as 2 of my coworkers coins and felt we had solid winners. Coins appeared to have solid strikes, well centered, and simply flawless, perfect looking JFKs. The results were: 1- 70, 2- 69 for me, 2-69 for coworker.

    Needless to say, we’re not happy campers when you compare the quality of coins we thought we had to the population report stats I posted Monday morning in which the collective group was at 87%. You guys unexpectedly answer many questions/concerns I had in your comments above and I appreciate that. I had very bad results with the Proof BHoFs I sent in that I know are top notch as I’ve seen enough of them across various schedule shipments (buy what you like, right?). So anyway, I think we’re all pretty much in the same boat. I could see where one 69 might get dinged for being a tad off center, the other, beats me?! This sharing of results has been helpful as its been very frustrating and costly, and I’m not inclined to renew my membership when its up for renewal. Think I’m going to draw from your lessons and push forward. Good luck to you gentlemen!

  62. TigerSig says

    I sent in three JFK’s to PCGS. Two came back 70′ and one came back a 69. I cannot tell a difference.

    After reading some of these stories I guess I should consider myself lucky.

  63. VA Rich says

    Eagle One – they tucked them under Commoratives –

    From Sat –

    PCGS (Total Pop inclusive of all labels) –

    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 23; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70)
    (ANA Show graded 69 & 70 for 117; 831 = 948 or 87.6% graded 70)

    First Strike (post show)
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 23; 1,103; 2,550; = 3,678 (69.3% graded 70)

    Non-FS (Base)
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary (69, 70) – 11; 4 = 15 (26.6% graded 70)

  64. GoldFishin says

    @Eagle One- VA Rich posted this:

    VA Rich says

    September 13, 2014 at 6:16 am

    PCGS (Total Pop inclusive of all labels) –

    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 19; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70)
    (ANA Show graded 69 & 70 for 117; 831 = 948 or 87.6% graded 70)

    First Strike (post show)
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 23; 1,103; 2,550; = 3,678 (69.3% graded 70)

    Non-FS (Base)
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary (69, 70) – 11; 4 = 15 (26.6% graded 70)

  65. Jon in CT says

    Eagle One wrote on September 16, 2014 at 10:16 PM:
    <blockquote?I went to the PCGS population report to get the pop data on the 2014-W Gold. However, I could not find anything on the W and the UNCs. Yet, I remember seeing the UNC pop data before. Maybe this is due to my low grade membership. If someone could get the PCGS 2014-W pop data, I could accurately compute the statistical probability of getting 5 out of 5 PR-69s. This would be an empirical analysis based upon historical data. I will need all of the numbers. Total graded, total number of 70s, total number of 69s, total number of 68s and so on. A link or a copy and paste would be fine.

    Hmm. Sounds like you want to test an hypothesis which presumes PCGS has correctly graded every 2014-W presented. But I, somehow, suspect that bg35765 believes at least one or likely more of his coins which were graded 69 are actually grade 70 and were, therefore, misgraded.

  66. Pittsburgh P says

    VaRich I guess its good you at least got 1 70 but it seems like there just handing 69s out without looking.

  67. cagcrisp says

    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 19; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70)

    Using the above numbers that VA Rich and GoldFishin posted the odd of getting 5 -69’s are ~ 8.05/10,000

  68. Hawkster says

    I would trust Cag’s statistical analysis, as he has impeccable credentials in this area. He is beyond reproach.

  69. Jerry Diekmann says

    GoldFishin – Not a coincidence – “if it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck…” I think what PCGS has been doing puts the final nail in the coffin with TPG’ers as far as I’m concerned. They have lost all credibility, and I wonderhow far back this dishonesty goes. I myself never put much credence in the TPG grades, and I’m glad that I didn’t, but I wonder about all those collectors who placed their faith in these imposters. It’s pretty evudent that they’re in bed with the big dealers, and this whole label business is just plain nonsense, an artificial “rarity they cooked up to fleece collectors even more. A label shouldn’t add 1 cent more to the value of the coin because in no way, shape, or form is it part of the coin. Very sad situation, and I feel sorry for the collectors who have been taken in by these shady dealers and graders. I hope the TPG business goes to its grave – it started off as good, but over the years has become more amd more greedy and duplicitous.

  70. says

    cagcrisp, Not to negate the stats, but we all should agree on the presence of human error. Grading may come close, but it still will never be a science.

  71. Jon in CT says

    cagcrisp wrote on September 16, 2014 at 10:44 PM:

    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 19; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70)

    Using the above numbers that VA Rich and GoldFishin posted the odd of getting 5 -69′s are ~ 8.05/10,000

    You must be using a slide rule. My calculation is (1517/6303)^5 = .00080759081 = 8.0759/10,000.

    But these calculations assume PCGS grades are 100% accurate. Bad.

  72. GoldFishin says

    Joanie in Ct- take your zoloft and call it a night! maybe tomorrow the sun will come up in your part of the nether world!!

  73. cagcrisp says

    LOL…I used VA Rich’s Numbers and posted GoldFishin’s Numbers. The Two sets of numbers actually do Not match.

    VA Rich numbers:
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 23; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70) would be ~8.05/10,000 for 5-69’s

    GoldFishin’s numbers:
    2014-W 50C Gold JFK 50th Anniversary, DC (67, 68, 69, 70, Total) – 2; 19; 1, 517; 4,765; = 6,303 (75.5% total pop graded 70 would be ~ 8.08/10,000 for 5-69’s

  74. Eagle One says

    2014-W PCGS Grading Probability Analysis
    Assumption: Inclusive of all labels

    There is a greater chance of receiving 5 PR70s than 5 PR69s.

    Sheldon Score 66 67 68 69 70
    Actual Counts 0 2 23 1517 4765
    Sample Space 6303 6303 6303 6303 6303
    % Chance 0 0.03 0.36 24.07 75.60

    5 PR69s 1517 1516 1515 1514 1513
    6303 6302 6301 6300 6299
    0.2406 0.2405 0.2404 0.2403 0.2401

    Probability %Chance
    0.0008 0.080%

    5 PR70s 4765 4764 4763 4762 4762
    6303 6302 6301 6300 6299
    0.75598 0.75595 0.75591 0.75587 0.75599

    Probability %Chance
    0.247 24.686%

    3 69s & 2 70s 1517 1516 1515 4765 4764
    6303 6302 6301 6300 6299
    0.2406 0.2405 0.2404 0.7563 0.75631

    Probability %Chance
    0.008 0.796%

    * Using Multiplication Rule for Probabilities and Assuming Dependence
    * Sample Space includes all 2014-W Gold Kennedys graded to Date

  75. VA Bob says

    TPG’s grades are subjective. The difference between 69 and 70 is so minute that a determination with a coin toss is just as likely a way to decide. The TPG’s know that what they put on their label compels some to pay more, thereby providing a perceived value for their service. They are an unregulated business, as far as the grades they give, of course they are going to give their best, largest customers what they want, otherwise they will take their business elsewhere. They have to make up the lower numbers somehow, or risk losing credibility, or the fallacy that fewer brand new coins from the Mint can be 70’s. This is going to be levied against the little guy, because they aren’t as necessary to the business, and few hear their complaints.

    Why would anyone put their faith into a service that make measurements on a scale where the measuring device (the grader) cannot be calibrated to the industry standard? Just because they have a hologram and nice initials on their label, people believe they are the end all be all. Most people wouldn’t let a guy in their home just because he had a hardhat and clipboard in his hand, I’d hope anyway.

    I’ve said it before, TPG’s are good for authenticating old coins (because they are familiar with the markers, you can be too), and grading old coins because wear indicators have been established for old coins long before TPG’s existed (one can learn these too). Moderns that never circulated? If you’re selling or planning them over the internet, if you like expensive coin holders, or you fell for the TPG hype. Nothing inherently wrong with that everyone is has their preference. As long as you know that you are feeding the tigers. 😉

  76. Tinto says

    @Jerry Diekmann

    Would agree, the TPG’s have gone insane with these numerous labels, add to that the CAC (in two different colors now) and WINGS stickers … mostly for older coins so far

    This will never happen … but .. I wonder if the TPG’s would ever break out their grading report by customer type (eg. dealer, big dealer, auction house, big name collector, small time collector …) it would be interesting …

  77. Jon in CT says

    I believe bg35765 actually wanted support for the premise that at least one of his five gold Kennedy coins should have been graded as 70. So the question for statistics savants Eagle One and cagcrisp is really this: What are the odds that bg35765 is correct and at least one (if not more) of his five gold Kennedy coins (all of which were graded 69) are actually 70s?

  78. GoldFishin says

    @Tinto- yea, I saw a yellow CAC sticker on Ebay, or maybe it was Heritage, for the first time tonight. It was on an old green PCGS holder. I thought maybe they put the yellow sticker over the green label so it would show up against the green background. Interesting…..

  79. Eagle One says

    Assuming the short term historical performance is approximately equal to present performance, bg35765 should of seen a few 70s.

  80. Eagle One says

    The sudden decline in recent grades are either due changes in the TPG’s grading standard or the Mint’s manufacturing process experienced a minor degradation. The analysis suggests that the bulk of the 70 issued grades occurred early on when the submission window initially opened.

  81. Tinto says

    @GoldFishin

    I read somewhere that CAC has a green sticker and a gold sticker (maybe for something they see as a perhaps a “plus” (just guessing here)… to the grade assigned by the TPG?) maybe there are more varieties of stickers … ??? and WINGS are for world coins (so far I think ….)

    Getting really confusing to me but what is not confusing is that the TPG and the sticker folks are making money off this continuing marketing hype …

  82. Jon in CT says

    Eagle One wrote on September 17, 2014 at 12:44 AM:

    Assuming the short term historical performance is approximately equal to present performance, bg35765 should of seen a few 70s.

    Eagle One wrote on September 17, 2014 at 12:55 AM:

    The sudden decline in recent grades are either due changes in the TPG’s grading standard or the Mint’s manufacturing process experienced a minor degradation.>/blockquote>

    I see you have your feet firmly planted on both sides of the issue. Bravo!

  83. Jerry Diekmann says

    VA Bob – you are SO right about the TPGs. Maybe what the statistics gurus in the group have calculated as the probability of 69s vs. 70s strongly indicates (if not proves) that the whole business is a fraud. This is a conclusion I have been coming to gradually over the last several years with all the hype of first strikes, green stickers, labels, pictures and/or signatures on labels, and now the disparity in grades based on whether you are a big dealer vs. a small time collector. It’s the same way that Coinage and Coin World play the game. If you have a problem with a false advertisement in their publications, expect no help from them, as they don’t want to antagonize their advertisers, the bread and butter of their business, as 90% of both publicationsis advertising and/or current prices for all coins, which just takes up a lot of space, although it does meet the “weight test”. The TPG guys are going to favor the big dealers who speculate on quick and hefty profits to be made on giving 70s ratings to them and 69s to nearly everyone else. I would not be surprised at all if there wasn’t some “quid pro quo” – kickbacks – going on between the graders and the big dealers. Remember the old adage, “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure”. Maybe the ANA should investigate this situation, if they are not already in the pockets of the bad guys. Their reputation as a professional organization has deteriorated over the years. All in all, these dirty tactics are not good for the coin collecting hobby, and I suspect the JFK gold half dollar has lost some sales because of the bitter taste in a lot of people’s mouths over the way the Mint and the ANA mishandled the sales of the coin, plus the big dealers busing in homeless and other people to circumvent the supposed restrictions on monopolizing purchases. Pretty disgusting, and a lot of blame to be shared among the ANA, the Mint, the TPGs, and the big dealers, IMO..

  84. Ends in Error says

    The Mint should strike a few in Silver – might save em some money. The dual dated Kennedy in Silver would ignite sales a bit. As long as there weren’t too many struck.

  85. A different Jeff says

    Grading, grading, grading…
    First, we should remember that 70 represents a perfect coin – no flaws (discernible with a5x loupe). Perfection is a truly high standard, one which should represent the exception rather than the rule. I have been collecting for many years (pulled my first Kennedys out of circulation in ’64) and once upon a time a grade of 67 was considered the highest reasonably achievable grade (and the progression was 60, 63, 65, 67), with the granularity to provide a bit of cushion for those pesky in-betweens. Gradually, as the mint improved its manufacturing processes and quality improved we began to see a few 68s. Now, almost all numismatic strikes are regularly MS/PR-69. Grading any coin as a 70 leaves no room for that better specimen which might come along, and also does not allow for slight differences between various examples of a given coin. Not all 70s are the same, so how could those variances be accounted for in supposedly perfect coins? Soon we may see a grade of 70+, or perhaps even 71! Wouldn’t that be a find – a more than perfect coin.

    In the immortal words of Garrison Keillor – “Well, that’s the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.”

  86. bg35765 says

    Jon – It has been 17 years since my statistics class in college, and if I remember correctly I may have gotten a C. (My professor’s thick accent didn’t help.)

    I was thinking something more along the lines of using the PCGS population report to determine the likelihood of one coin being less than 70 and then multiplying that probability over five coins. And then repeating the exercise for the different show/first day labels. And finally a look at a few dealers’ submissions to see how many consecutive 69s they received.

    I had a project go in at work on Monday and I am working a lot of hours. So I’ll get to it when things slow down.

  87. says

    Jon in CT, This is a coin blog and I want to keep it that way, plus I actually care about you as a person, the same as myself. Therefore I want to say that I’m no longer engaging in name calling for the sake of all who read and enjoy this blog /thread. This is a community of coin enthusiasts who are not here for contentious words, but for the expression and learning about the hobby. So with that being said I formally apologize for all petty language aimed at you sir. Norman

  88. Hawkster says

    As long as TPG’s are not held accountable for their very questionable practices, nothing will change. They will remain biased toward the customers that generate the most revenue for them. The small customers should be known as the “69ers”, who are used by the TPG’s in an attempt to make the 70 grade more relevant.
    As long as the TPG graders are aware of whose coins they are grading, this nonsense will continue to prevail. Who would they rather tick off: the big mega dealer customer or the little guy customer?

  89. ips_stuff says

    total off topic, but I got an email yesterday from the mint…

    Items included in this shipment:

    1. 2014 BASEBALL HOF GOLD UNC (B32) Qty : 1

    Look like that 3/28 order finally is shipping. Any thoughts on what the condition of this “late” BHOF will look like?

  90. Pittsburgh P says

    Dustyroads its all in good fun & I appreciate your comments being the bigger man. That being said it will fall on deaf ears as I and others have tried the same thing with this commenter. I have apologized & tried to appeal to this person rational side in the past only to be ridiculed and/or laughed at for it. So what I say now may seem harsh but I honestly believe it’s what he/she wants – attention. I have learned just to ignore him/her but at times it is hard because I do not like it when people act superior or maliciously attack others for no reason… I am not hard to get along with and gave learned to roll with it or ignore it 🙂 You are correct this is a coin blog not a statistics or grammer class or high school so if you or anyone has been put off by my comments in jest please let me know & I will stop…

    I do appreciate everyones comments and opinions – GF, Cag, VaRich, Jerry, Ikaika only to name a very small few – that are here to learn, inform, and grow collectively as numismatic brethren, stackers, and even flippers…

  91. VA Rich says

    Pitt P – I’m really looking forward to the grading class we’re signed up for, I think it’ll open up an all new perspective for our own collecting acumen as well as what we’ll be able to share on the blog. And you know they’ll be some very insightful side discussions about the biz that one would otherwise never be privy to (most likely). Anyhoo, I can’t wait! Maybe I should bring a long a sample or two for a second opinion?

  92. says

    Pittsburgh P,

    There’s really only two ways it could happen. Either:

    1. Consumers “vote with their feet” and stop buying labels. I think this is unlikely given how shady outfits like the Home Shopping Network always seem to be finding new suckers to overcharge, and someone is paying those eBay flippers their asking prices too.

    or 2. Some sort of of investigative reporting/journalism is done that somehow exposes direct collusion between TPGs and dealers with irrefutable evidence like leaked emails. The shock of such a revelation might be enough to cause collectors to walk away from labels. Needless to say, I also think this is very unlikely as well.

    I can’t do much more than doing my part by not playing the game and not buying graded modern coins. Part of the reason I prefer to do business with mints directly rather than buying from dealers is because I don’t really trust the dealers to send me quality products, since more often than not, those will be the ones sent in for grading and marked way up.

  93. Hawkster says

    IPS,
    There’s a dood chance that your HOF gold coin will have a more worn glove and the baseball might have a few loose stitchings. Just kidding, good luck with it.

  94. gary says

    @PittP… Agree. For me the TPG opinion has some validity for determination of authenticity of valuable coins. Even at that they could make errors of judgement. My conclusion is that nobody can hold them accountable for any of their methods of business. They are almost like those major investment banks responsible for the crash of 2008. A monopoly “too big to fail”.

  95. ips_stuff says

    Hawkster,

    I am assuming it will be a coin someone’s returned back to the mint. After this long I would not think the mint had any gold bhof coins just sitting on a shelve.

    I will take my contacts out when I get it and give this one a close up look before I decide to keep it.

  96. cagcrisp says

    @ips_stuff, Take heart you have a chance at getting a good Gold BHOF. Looks like they are trying to get as close to 50,000 as possible. Hard copy numbers are 49,907 while the excel spreadsheet shows 51,279. Some of those coming back to the Mint could be just like the Gold Kennedy’s returning. Just a change of mind, money issues or just that sales dollars are coming down on the bay…

    The Gold BHOF are oversold 1,279 with just 93 slots left to be sold to hit the 50,000 mark. Take heart that you could have one of the Last 93 coins sold…

  97. Pittsburgh P says

    VaRich me too! 😉 Yeah bring some of your “flawless” 69s and we can ask why they weren’t 70s & see if the expert can tell… Better yet bring a 69 and a 70 and cover the label and see if they can determine the grade given.

    CO yep I don’t see either of those happening either. I’m with you though and just don’t play the game anymore… Not that I did much before.

    Gary I agree the TPGs are useful for authentication but who needs a modern authenticated??? Unless your buyin from Beijing

    Ips good luck, depending on how bad your vision is without your contacts I’m sure it’ll be a keeper 😉

  98. VA Rich says

    cag – do you have to email the seller to find that info out? Or is there a fleabay feature I’m missing?

  99. Jerry Diekmann says

    Captain Overkill – I will take that as a “second” to my motion that an investigation be conducted into the conduct and collaboration between the TPGs and the big dealers. Like you said, the possibility of something like that goiing on is unlikely. It certainly won’t be coming from the coin publications, which make most of their money off of the advertising from the big dealers. Like you I do not buy modern graded coins. The only value of slabs is for older coins, but as alluded by “the other Jeff”, even then over the years there has been a steady “grade progression”, as MS63s are now MS64s and MS64s are now MS65s, and even VFs become EFs, and EFs become AUs. Conclusion – the graders can assign whatever grade they want to to a coin, with little fear of reprisal. A 69 grade on a modern coin to a big dealer goes to or is exchanged for a 70 grade, and the small-time collector gets thye 69 grade. I think these TPGs and the big dealers are ruining the hobby, and the apparent ineptness of the Mint doesn’t help matters. Conclusion – buy graded coins only if they are older coins – 1964 and before, and recognize that older slabs are more likely to have the true grade than the fancy new hologram slabs.. Don’t buy graded modern coins and for sure don’t buy labels or FS or ER coins – they add zero value to the coin in the long run – it is all hype and a bubble that will burst one day and leave those buyers of those coins with big losses – paper and real. I have lived long enough to know that there are people out there just waiting to take your money or self-created “rarities”, whether they are coins or beanie babies.

  100. cagcrisp says

    @VA Rich, get the ‘item number’ of the product you are wanting to know the sales price of and then go to the website http://www.watchcount.com. put the ‘item number’ in the Keywords yellow slot and hit ‘Show me what’s Most Popular’ and then you see the Sale price and see Multiple Sales prices under ‘History’ if there is more than one offering( Buy it Now)

  101. Sith says

    I can’t believe that their is still a discussion about the probability of PF-70s vs PF-69s, you can calculate all the known variables but ultimately it come down to the grader as the grade is selective. IE even if the grader was unbiased which they have already admitted in legal documents that they are not unbiased, it would still depend on the grader’s opinion as it has been proven the same coin will not get the same grade even from the same company. Then your calculations are dependent on a bunch of additional variables not changing such as worn dies, workers, etc.. IE you ordered 5 coins but they came from the same batch, and that batch was run with a worn die.

  102. Sith says

    CO,

    Their have already been investigations and the PCGS signed a consent decrees to stop the at best unethical behavior but of course without declaring wrong doing. That was about 30 years ago, so it is water under the bridge

    As a reminder the FTC accused the “PCGS of misleading consumers by falsely claiming that it provides consistent, objective grading of rare coins.”

  103. simon says

    Clark : I’ll be sure to add the ’92 silver dollar.

    Clark, the unique aspect of this coin in uncirculated format is that it has edge lettering – VERY NICE!

  104. Pittsburgh P says

    Sith most of us knew that. Grading was very different in the 1980s and it was when PCGS & NGC was just getting started. They were not grading modern coins and there wasn’t different labels for the same coins or FS/ER. So it’s really a different topic and not water under the bridge imo.
    I believe what CO and Jerry are saying is another investigation is needed or at the least someone should look into it since it’s pretty obvious people will not stop buying them either due to lack of knowledge or shady TV saleman/dealers as CO said… Or some like them I guess & don’t mind paying a huge premium.

  105. simon says

    RE: TPG authentication. The authentication process is itself an undesirable business. It involves not only minute examination of the devices, fields, and lettering but also physical handling of the coin to measure its mass and dimensions, and infer material density. If I had an old coin deemed valuable I would not allow TPGs to touch and handle the coin period. I would go after it myself – given the abundance of high resolution coin images on Heritage and dealer websites, and the availability of accurate jewelers scales, and calipers.

  106. Sith says

    Pittsburgh P – I did not say it was water under the bridge but IMHO these people will be fleeced just like the people who got fleeced by Tulving when it went bankrupt about two years ago. All because they forgot that the very same company did the exact same thing about 30 years ago. If Hannes Tulving, Jr. is still alive 30 years from now I would expect him to be fleecing a new set of investors. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. I imagine if

    As far as another investigation it has already been discussed that most of us and I would dare say any legal department would not be able to distinguish a 69 from a 70. You could attempt to bring in a bean counter and statistically prove that they are wrong, like what is happening here, but they can’t even stop the brokers and talking heads on TV from giving unbiased advice on stocks,or trade on inside information, and that affects billions of dollars in investments, but we want an investigation on subjective coin grading…good luck with that.

  107. silverhawk357 says

    @Negative Ned in CT – –
    About the Bulk Purchase Program, you said ” So none of this is the good stuff?” is on the bulk program, then listed what can be ordered, concerning my comment. My comment was short hand to mean that all the new Commems, special releases are not on the Bulk program. How many proof sets does anyone need? How many Gold Spouse coins? If I could add a couple gold Kennedys to the order, it would make sense. I have a valid point. I can order in bulk but a small time honest business just can’t get a break. I’m watching the gold Kennedy today. If I COULD put together a big order with those on the bulk form, I would., and the Mint would get more business from me.

  108. A&L Futures says

    Wasn’t there supposed to be a price reduction today? The gold Kennedy Half Dollar coin is still at $1,240.00.

  109. Pittsburgh P says

    Sith I must’ve just misunderstood what was meant when you said:

    “That was about 30 years ago, so it is water under the bridge”

    I agree with you aboutTulving & if it’s not him it’ll be someone.
    I doubt an investigation will happen and if it does it is subjective as you say… I just think most here are only airing their displeasure with TPGs knowing nothing will change…

  110. Hawkster says

    The grading of modern bullion coins is especially ridiculous. Hey, we can banter back and forth all we want about the folly of grading moderns. Unfortunately, it is the fringe or casual collectors who are targeted by the TV hucksters, leading them to believe that a modern coin needs to be graded to insure its “pedigree”. It is these collectors/buyers who need to be better informed. A good deal of the responsibility to be better educated, coin wise, lies with the individuals themselves.

  111. VA Rich says

    2014 50th Anniversary Kennedy Half-Dollar Gold Proof Coin (K15)

    This product is temporarily unavailable for product repricing.

  112. Sith says

    Pittsburgh P – It was my bad, I should have said for the general public it is water under the bridge. My post definitely implied that I personally thought it was water under the bridge, and that is not the case, I find it very relevant to why the dealers seem to get lucky. To quote Animal farm

    All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others”

  113. simon says

    Pitt : most here are only airing their displeasure with TPGs knowing nothing will change…

    There has to be a grass roots collector effort to “get the word out”
    On examining recent history, the hype, particularly with PCGS,
    is volcanic. To name a few examples, the “1st Kennedy Gold” @ 100K,
    the high mintage “LESPS coins in PCGS tags” each coin selling for > $500,
    not too long ago the 2000/2001 Sacagawea common proofs selling for $2000 – $3000,
    which is unbelievable considering I picked up both coins in PCGS tags recently
    for under $50 at the 70 grade. The list goes on and on simply because the TPGs
    have discovered that people have money and will spend lushly on purely personal whims.

    This affects us ordinary collectors quite a bit because we simply can’t get
    original high quality coins we missed on issue directly from the mint.

    The coins are simply not allowed to mature in value gradually as used to be the case
    not long ago. Now PCGS can grade 10-20 coins minted in the millions, determine
    that the population of 70s is 1-2, and these coins sell for thousands, at least in the short term.
    The 2000/2001 Sacagawea proofs are a case in point.

  114. Pittsburgh P says

    Sith no problem but thanks for the clarification… Excellent quote & very true.

    VaRich so does that mean 1240$ is the lowest the Mint will sell the JFK gold? Or just for now…. Seems odd and kinda shady. You’d think they’d just pull the plug & call it a loss 🙂

  115. Pittsburgh P says

    Simon I don’t disagree with you but as I said earlier what can be done?

    The general public could care less so who are we getting the word out too?

  116. Mr. Kairu says

    Kind of off topic question… but is the JFK half that A&L sold the same that comes in the uncirculated set being sold for 9.95? I was just wondering what about it (besides the awesome grade) made it worth that much since I can’t find another 50th anniversary coin that it could be. Thanks!

  117. Mr. Kairu says

    @AkBob – thank you! I just wondered if the coin from the $10 set was actually worth that much even in that nice a grade.

  118. VA Rich says

    Pitt – You would think they’d just pull the plug & call it a loss!
    I wonder if the buyers household limit history will carry over
    Good idea on the bringing a few pieces for conversation sake
    Well, we survived Tequila Tuesday, we’ll have to see what’s in store come Ginevening Thursdays

  119. VA Bob says

    All – Every time the workings of TPG’s are mentioned here on this blog, it is a service provided to the many readers, many who lurk and do not comment. These readers are constantly rolling in and out, so the topic should be repeated from time to time. In perhaps a small way, everyone here is effecting change in the hobby if someone takes away from the knowledge provided and applies it with the coin industry.

    It’s an uphill battle when there is money to be made in slabs and labels. The only way to get the sellers to change is to change the buyers. It will be a long process and the TPG’s and their surrogates surely will try to counter it.

  120. cagcrisp says

    Comparing the Products having the 10% Subscriptions for 2014 vs. Comparable sales Dates for 2013 without the 10% Subscription. Comparing Sales for 09/15/13 vs. 09/14/14. There are 14 items listed for 2014 that the 10% Subscription Discount program. I could not find anything for 2014 for the ATB circulation coin set so I will only compare 13 items. Also I will compare Only the 1st 3 offerings of the last 3 so as to try to get a better comparison apples to apples…

    P15 2013 PROOF SET 536,086
    P16 2014 PROOF SET 464,367…………-71 ,719………………-13%

    SV8 2013 SILVER PROOF SET 304,667
    SW1 2014 SILVER PROOF SET 302,573…………..-2,094…………….-1%

    U13 2013 UNC SET 240,499
    U14 2014 UNC SET 244,225……………..+3,726…………..+2%

    GA6 2013 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ 739,642
    ES1 2014 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ 676,083…………….-63,559……………-9%

    GB2 2013 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ 134,885
    ES2 2014 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ 188,594……………..+53,709………..+40%

    PE3 2013 PRES $1 PROOF SET 218,747
    PE4 2014 PRES $1 PROOF SET 185,368…………….-33,379………….-15%

    XE7 2013 PRES $1 UNC SET 53,489
    XE8 2014 PRES $1 UNC SET 35,752…………….-17,737…………….-33%

    Q5D 2013 ATB QTR PROOF SET 100,480
    Q5E 2014 ATB QTR PROOF SET 88,051………………..-12,429………..-12%

    SV9 2013 ATB QTR SILVER PROOF SET 112,529
    Q5F 2014 ATB QTR SILVER PROOF SET 95,786…………………-16,743………….-15%

    N96 2013 ATB QTR UNC SET 29,269
    N98 2014 ATB QTR UNC SET 16,581……………..-12,688…………..-43%

    NQ5-7 2013 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ 1st 3 50,842
    NR1-3 2014 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ 1st 3 77,691………………+26,849………….+53%

    N46-48 2013 ATB QTR 3-COIN SET -1st 3 40,918
    P87-89 2014 ATB QTR 3-COIN SET -1st 3 41,097………………+179…………0%

    P45-47 2013 PRES $1 COIN COVER -1st 3 36,860
    P49-51 2014 PRES $1 COIN COVER – 1st 3 32,663……………-4,197…………-11%

  121. says

    Jerry,

    I would like to see someone look into the practices of the graders, but I am quite sympathetic to coin publications because many of them are small outfits geared towards hobbyists that often only have a few people working for them, many of whom are probably not getting paid much and are enthusiasts themselves. To really investigate, someone would either have to get lucky and have information leaked to them, or else a dedicated person would have to spend a lot of time digging. (for instance, Mint News Blog is a major coin publication, and it’s basically just one person!)

    Other than that, I largely agree with your post and insights. I have long thought myself that coin grades are really only important when dealing with older/historic pieces. I would generally not even consider graded coins past the 1960s and would cast a wary eye on anything after the 30s-40s.

  122. A&L Futures says

    @ Mr. Kairu,

    It’s possible that the price (i.e. the sales price) was based not on the coin itself, but the purpose for which it was sold.

  123. cagcrisp says

    @Eddie, The Mint has a Gold pricing grid that they follow. The do Not have a Silver pricing grid that they follow or at least they have not published one…

  124. A different Jeff says

    Briefly two items…

    First, with regard to ending sales of the Kennedy golds early, I doubt the mint will cease unless the LBMA gold fix drops so low that they can’t recoup the costs. At this point I believe the mint has produced approximately 70,000 coins of the 75,000 they indicated they could handle before more blanks had to be procured. This gives an inventory of roughly 6,000 finished units (plus whatever they do with returns) to satisfy a demand, after the initial week’s insanity, which is averaging just above 200 units per week. The two weeks with positive net sales both were the result of pending price changes: the first as prices were going higher, the second as prices were going lower. With this new price change, I would expect to see 500 to 1,000 net sales if gold stabilizes in the current range. Given all this, I would not be surprised to see Gold sales end shortly after the Silvers go on sale,probably mid-November.

    Second, I received my Clad Kennedy set a few days ago (ordered with my gold Kennedy on opening day), and based on comments I’ve heard and read about the initial batch and the seeming lower quality, I’d have to say there may be an improvement in manufacturing and handling, as mine seem to be better than those described. The Denver particularly shows strong ‘eye-appeal’.

    Oh, and one more thing – consider that something approaching 60,000 units (K15) will qualify for ‘First Strike’/’Early Release’ based on the 30 day window. Makes that distinction pretty worthless, huh?

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