2014-P Great Smoky Mountains 5 oz Silver Coin Sold Out

smokyThe 2014-P Great Smoky Mountains National Park Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coin is now indicated as sold out on the United States Mint’s website.

The coins had originally gone on sale about six weeks ago on April 7, 2014 priced at $154.95 with a maximum mintage of 25,000 pieces. A discounted price of $139.45 was available for orders placed through the US Mint’s Online Subscription Program.

Sales for the product had opened extremely strong reaching 21,415 units in less than a week, accounting for 85.7% of the maximum mintage. The strong opening seemed to have been driven by the discounted price available through the subscription program, which drove more sales into the debut period and/or encouraged more orders.

Based on the strong opening, a near term sell out seemed to be a possibility, however the pace of sales settled into a significantly slower pace, with subsequent weekly sales adding 1,426 units, 476 units, and then just 101 units before regaining some steam. The release of the next coin in the series featuring Shenandoah National Park last week seemed to provide the final impetus to reach a sell out.

The latest weekly sales report published yesterday, showed the Great Smoky Mountains coin at sales of 25,421 units, which is actually higher than the 25,000 maximum mintage. The US Mint marked the coins as sold out on their website earlier today.

The Shenandoah coins, which have a higher maximum mintage of 30,000, debuted at sales of 20,120 pieces.

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Comments

  1. gary says

    So is the Mint going to recall 421 coins to keep the maximum mintage @25K? Just how much over a stated maximum mintage is “acceptable”? 421? 1,000? 4,021? As long as they are at it, why not strike off a few more gold & silver BHOF coins? There’s demand for them.

  2. bg35765 says

    They didn’t produce more than 25,000 of them. They took orders for extras to account for returns and cancellations, which is a perfectly rational thing to do.

    Just like the baseball silver and gold, some people who ordered will not get one.

  3. Pittsburgh P says

    Well I guess this answers the questions about the mint raising the maximum mintage… I’m sure if the people who ordered the 421 don’t get theirs due to cancellations they shouldn’t have an issue gettin them on the secondary market for a small markup if they are like AtBs of the past.

  4. SilverFan says

    Let’s see: low mintage, .999 silver, some great designs, and discounted subscription price. What’s not to like about these? No better deal right now at the US mint.

  5. fmtransmitter says

    Whew! Glad We can move on from touchy previous subject. I received my subscription for this coin and I have to say, besides Rushmore, it is my favorite so far. I do not collect these in OGP or bullion, They are massive coins and by far the best deal going but unlike say the $100 for $100 Canadian coin, these COULD only be exchanged for $.25. lol I do buy the ones I really like in P only and subscription price was right for such a high quality US Mint product and low mintage. I did buy one Rushmore bullion for glare! Happy hunting, still looking for 1983 P die crack quarter. Any one finds one, let us know!

  6. fmtransmitter says

    OT: I had to help a co worker today trying to buy a $1 HOF PCGS PF70. He was going to pay $319! Sheesh!

  7. Hidalgo says

    Off Topic – I was curious how the silver and clad Baseball Hall of Fame coins were doing on the secondary market.

    I checked recent sold listings, and it’s clear that the market for the certified silver and clad BHOF coins is softening. As I expected, prices are starting to drift southward. The downward trend will become more pronounced when the US Mint starts shipping its unfulfilled orders in a few weeks/months.

  8. fmtransmitter says

    Die cracks are seldom seen on modern US coins because improved production practices have led to greater uniformity of coins from a particular date and mint. These varieties are popular with many modern coin collectors who seek examples of these anomalies. The similar “Speared Bison” 2005-D Jefferson Nickel, for example, is ranked 80 in the 100 Greatest U.S. Modern Coins.

    Happy hunting now that I have everyone looking at their change everyday when they are shopping…IMO what is truly amazing about this hobby. All this label stuff stinks imo, more modern error discoveries I say!

  9. fmtransmitter says

    BTW, it is also imo that the BRM did theirs on purpose to spur some interest in that machine shop they call a Mint. Those coins never seem to gain interest OR value!

  10. fmtransmitter says

    Now compare that to our beautiful 5 ounce ATB’s…We have it made over here!

  11. Dustyroads says

    Ladies and gentleman, You may now proceed on to the post office to receive you new SNP 5 oz. P ATB silver coins. Shipping has begun.

  12. Jon in CT says

    fmtransmitter,
    Thanks for sharing your brain dump earlier tonight between 9 and 9:30 PM — six off-topic posts in row . That must be some kind of record for irrelevance.
    :roll:

  13. Louis says

    Hidalgo- I know you mean well, but you seem so eager to show the baseball coins are or will decline in value.

    Plus coin values take time to establish themselves and that usually means years, not weeks or months. Look at the 2012 southern crux, which started off about $120 and now it is a $400 coin.

    From what I have seen with the BHOF 70’s have softened maybe 20% but are selling well at those levels, but OGP prices for silver and gold (not really following clad closely) have risen steadily for weeks, so it is simply not true that prices on the whole are softening. What is happening is prices for 70’s and OGP are equalizing, which is a sign of healthy demand. it is also not surprising that 70’s have come down because these coins are grading very high, as I wrote in several of my articles that they would right at the beginning of sales (based on insider info). We will just see what happens later. There is no rush. If you are old enough, remember what Doris Day said:’ “Whatever will be, will be’!!

  14. gatortreke says

    I live in east Tennessee close to the Smoky Mountains and believe this design captures the feel of the GSMNP area 100%. The design looks great on the 5 oz P’s and bullions, a real homerun design in my opinion.

  15. Jon in CT says

    Dustyroads wrote on May 21, 2014 at 9:57 PM:

    Ladies and gentleman, You may now proceed on to the post office to receive you new SNP 5 oz. P ATB silver coins. Shipping has begun.

    I have an active sub for the uncirculated silver 5 oz AtB coins and I haven’t yet seen any movement from the “In stock and reserved” status for my Shenandoah coin. Are you trying to say you already have a shipment tracking number for a Shenandoah 5 oz silver coin shipment from the Mint?

  16. Erik H says

    OT: I saw some 2014 Lincoln cents PR70 sell for over $100, looks like a bigger bubble than the HOF coins to me.

  17. fmtransmitter says

    This the day after Frontline ran their story about Snowden and the NSA..imagine that…

  18. Dustyroads says

    Jon in CT, Yes sir, tracking # present. I assume it will stay, unless I’m the victim of US Mint shenanigans.

  19. Jon in CT says

    Dustyroads wrote on May 21, 2014 at 10:40 PM:

    Jon in CT, Yes sir, tracking # present. I assume it will stay, unless I’m the victim of US Mint shenanigans.

    That’s great news. I doubt a tracking number will “disappear” and so I expect my sub order will be assigned a tracking number soon. Thanks for the info.

  20. Dustyroads says

    OT, I am presently looking through rolls of pennies, and I have found a very interesting looking 1964 D which looks AU TO MS which has a grey color, not at all copper looking, and it appears to be from the Mint in this condition. I weighed the penny in at 3.21 grams, which is on the high side for a copper penny, but not outside the range. I also swiped it with my metal detector which gave it a copper reading, so it is copper. I have looked at many hundreds of thousands of pennies, and this is a first. Maybe it was heated excessively before minting. Would like feedback if any available.

  21. VA Bob says

    Dusty – sounds like a chemical reaction. I’ve seen grey colored pre 1982 cents before, not commonly. Heating can give some impressive blues and violets, which look cool considering the coin is now ruined numismatically. If you’re curious you can dip it and see if it is just some weird oxidation.

  22. Dustyroads says

    VA Bob, I made a very small scratch on the rim and came up with a bright silver color. No clue. Thanks for the input, I will try to find the answer to this one.

  23. Sith says

    @louis – You hit the nail on the head, Hidalgo IMHO has lost all credibility regarding the HOF coins. Conformational bias in action, maybe it could occur to him he misjudged the market if not the fact he does not represent “true collectors” desires. The again even a broken clock is right twice a day.

  24. says

    Jon,

    I also got a tracking number at about 10 pm so it seems like the first batch of Shenandoahs is definitely going out.

    On the broader topic of the GSM sellout, I think that it’s one of the quickest sellouts we had since the series began decelerating after the 2010/2011 launch. I am not expecting Shenandoah to do quite as well, though, with the mintage limit raised. I also noticed first day sales were a bit lower than GSM as well. The Mint may have jumped the gun on raising the mintage limit – I don’t think demand has quite recovered that much yet.

  25. Dustyroads says

    Well CO, wouldn’t you say that the Mint would want the established mintage to be just ahead of demand?

  26. Louis says

    I agree with CO and remember how the Mint raised the limits on bullion so high in 2011 after the quick sell out of the 2010’s that were so hard to get from the AP’s. I think they are making the same mistake again with the collector versions this year As I have said many times, trends take time to emerge and need to be studied carefully. If I were employed by the Mint, I would have said there was pent up demand and people eager for sub discounts with the GSM plus a popular design and would have suggested waiting to see how Shenandoah did before making changes. Plus a big pt. of the appeal is the low mintage, so if you raise it, demand goes down. Duh!!

  27. Dustyroads says

    Louis, CO, I, as well as you want slightly more limited mintage, but we are not talking 50,000 here.
    I’m feeling like people who are buying coins these days are becoming comfortable with the $19.50/$1280.00 price range we are in. I really don’t know how we will be able to recapture the lower mintages again unless we see prices perform like they did back in `08 through `13.

  28. Louis says

    Good pts., Dusty. I just wrote something for a company I do some work for about metal demand, and silver is up substantially while supplies are down, so higher prices should be coming at least for silver. Gold is not looking as good.

  29. Hidalgo says

    @fmtransmitter and @Louis and @Sith. One thing that I try to do is to eliminate emotions when projecting trends. I realize that there is much emotional value associated with the Baseball Hall of Fame coins.

    I plan to keep waiting before I buy a certified clad and silver Baseball Hall of Fame coin. I have been “watching” a few eBay auctions for such coins. I have noticed that winning bids keep dropping with time. And as a buyer, that’s certainly fine with me :)

    Sure, there will be exceptions to the trend (and I have seen a few in those auctions I have “watched”), but in general, as a buyer, I am liking what I am seeing :)

  30. HIdalgo says

    @fmtransmitter and @Louis and @Sith. By the way, I agree with Louis’ analysis. I still believe that secondary market prices for the silver and clad BHOF coins will continue to fall until they reach a stable level. (And I have noticed a recent trend that prices for silver and clad coins are starting to fall). That level will be above the US Mint’s retail price, but below the prices we saw 1-2 weeks ago.

    On the flip side, secondary market prices for the gold BHOF coins — both certified and uncertified — have remained strong. I do not see these coins selling at the US Mint’s “retail” price in the future. Although 50,000 coins does not make them “rare,” they are nevertheless in high demand, which is keeping prices high. (Note: compare the 50,000 limit with the number of gold 2011 Medal of Honor, 2012 Star Spangled Banner, and 2013 5 Star Generals coins sold).

    Likewise, although 400,000 silver BHOF coins is a high number, the demand for these coins is keeping prices high at this time. It will be interesting to see where secondary market prices will stabilize for the silver BHOF coins in the months ahead, especially after the US Mint ships its remaining orders. Note: based on current demand, I believe that the coins will still sell at a premium over the US Mint’s “retail” prices.

    Again, I try to keep emotions out of my analyses. As I track trends, I project the best times to buy and sell, taking into considering demand (though number of recent sales, sales prices on the secondary market, etc.) That way, I can find the best times to add wanted coins or sell my extras as I downsize my collection. :)

  31. gary says

    @gatortreke: The GSM is a terrific landscape design!!! And it looks fabulous in the P-Mint vapor blast finish. Besides the subscription discount, I think that was another reason for the quick sales. The mint did a fantastic job with the Maine Acadia in 2012 (My home state). Wish I had gotten an extra one of those when I could! I collect the ATB 5 oz. in P Mint only… I love the satiny finish on these coins!

  32. SilverFan says

    Even if the collector P ATB pucks have 25K or 30K produced, they are still low mintage.

  33. VABEACHBUM says

    @ Dusty, C.O., Louis and others – My Shenandoah ATB-P also received a tracking number last night, but has not been pulled into the system as of 0800. I expect that to happen by Noon, today.

    @ SilverFan – the 5 oz ATB-P’s are low mintage when compared to other US numismatic coins, in general, and certainly are a bargain when comparing the product to the price. I’ve been with the program from Day 1, and am stacking, at least, one each of the BU and UNC versions. However, when compared to any 5 oz numismatic Silver offering from any other World Mint, 25 – 30K is an extremely high mintage as compared to typical populations ranging from 500 to 3000 strikes. Recent examples include the 5 oz HR Koalas, the 5 oz WTE, the Royal Mint’s 5 oz Year of the Horse, any 5 oz Panda Coin (and Medal) from any year, almost every 5 oz RCM coin issued.

    The difference is – nearly all of those 5 oz Silver coins from the World Mints either are so over-priced from the respective mints and their “authorized distributor (GM),” or have a mediocre design that appeals to but a few collectors.

    The ATB-Ps have finally combined the best of both worlds – they now are presenting some very appealing designs AND they have fallen into a very acceptable price range.

  34. gary says

    @VABEACHBUM…. I agree with your comments, especially regarding the over-the-top prices for many of the world mints’ 5 oz. silver coins. The Panda coins have a deeply established following of collectors for many years. In recent years their mintages in all silver weights have skyrocketed. Some world mints have capitalized on the successes of the China mints in doing their own versions of China zodiac coins. The market is just stuffed with all kinds of gimmicky coin theme series that you’d need very deep pockets to collect them. Buying these confections at 3-5 times silver bullion value is a really risky investment IMHO. Low mintages do not always mean rarity. In many instances it only reflects low interest to collectors.

  35. thePhelps says

    VAB… while compared to other mints? Is that what we are supposed to do these days – look at the production limits of other 5oz coins and say the US Mint is over producing their coins now – because the other mints don’t sell as many of their products?

    I’d step back fromt he ledge… the other mints wish they could sale in volume and don’t so they produce freakish low mintage levels hoping to secure a niche in the market that way.

    The ATB series is doing just fine – no matter if they are selling 15,000 or 30,000. This years set of coins is perhaps the best so far – and I am not surprised they raised the mintage levels once they secured 20,000 subscriptions.

  36. A&L Futures says

    @ Everyone

    Does anyone know how to get a hold of the owner of this blog? I’d like to share need to a report/spreadsheet, which is rather alarming. (ref: PCGS Population figures)

    Thx

  37. CaptainOverkill says

    Dustyroads,

    My idea of the “perfect” mintage is for a coin is one that allows the piece to be on sale for a decent amount of time to allow everyone who wants one to acquire one, but not so long that the piece lingers for months. The mint seemed to hit that “sweet spot” with GSM. The mintages for last year, while being officially 25K, were in fact quite a bit lower given the numbers the coin hit when sellouts were achieved.

    30K for Shenandoah seems a bit ambitious to me right now.

    VABB,

    You’ve made a good point about mintage numbers and high pricing in regards to world mints. I’ve always wondered if you’d see better sales and higher mintages for Perth or the UK Royal Mint if world mints were willing to cut their premiums a little.

  38. Ray says

    I’m hoping the AtB program will get a lift from the new baseball hof coin collectors. I know subscriptions and the lower price have helped. We’re approaching half way through and things are looking good.

  39. stephen m says

    I regrettably cancelled my subscription for this coin after it appeared duplicated in my account. It seems to be a great deal of demand presently for GSM.

  40. Louis says

    @Hidalgo- Thanks for taking the time to flesh out your view, which sounds very reasonable to me and is, as you noted, similar to mine.

    Regarding the pucks I think they have good long-term potential based on silver content and mintages.

  41. KEITHSTER says

    Ya this one should be a hit in the long run sold out fast enough nice looking! Do think the rest of this years will lingerinto next with the higher mintages.Can’t wait to see the Excel #s next monday think that 421 # will be alot higher always seems to be alot of orders before the sellout:>:>:> Seems even the mint thought they would sell out faster hence the long backorder with none shipped must mean they ran out and must now press the rest. But think they will now geterdone and think they will meet the ship date 5-27-14 well maybe anyway?This one’s got me going like the last of the Perrys can’t wait but willing now that there gone baby gone.Also got tracking on the Sheandoah yesterday the #’s next week should tell more but do think we might see a -# one of these weeks if more people figure out how to cacell with the easy button gone? So Good Luck All :>:>:>

  42. Rob says

    30K mintage means that this coin will end up being available for a much much longer time, but the final mintage will still end up being around 25K when they finally do pull it. The last two coins of the year will probably be back to 25K max . . .

  43. gary says

    I think the Shenandoah has a good shot of reaching the 30K maximum. A good 20K or so will go to subscriptions and 10K may go to new ATB collectors. The series is only at it’s half way point this year and I have the belief that more and more collectors are “discovering” these great designs. The big problem with the ATB 5 ouncers is that there were and still may be a LOT of collectors & “investors” who got burned with the release of the 2010 ATB bullion 5 ouncers in late 2010. They have either realized (or are sitting on) huge dollar losses, especially on the higher grade slabbed ones. On the plus side though, many of the earlier ATBs in bullion and P-mint can be had for modest premiums with silver prices so low and I believe that savvy collectors are gradually acquiring the back issues.

  44. joe says

    @Ray said “I’m hoping the AtB program will get a lift from the new baseball hof coin collectors. I know subscriptions and the lower price have helped. We’re approaching half way through and things are looking good.”

    I think the people who post on this blog and the majority of those who purchase ATBs are hardcore collectors or resellers or both. The BHOF is an anomaly and consists of both hardcore collectors, speculators, and smattering of new collectors. It’s also likely that some of these new collectors may also morph into speculators believing they can make a fast buck too.

    While the designs are pretty good, the biggest thing driving the ATB program now is the Mint’s subscription program (and the associated savings). Personally, I’m setup to purchase two of each ATB offering going forward. In the past, I would purchase one or two; whatever suited me at the time. Essentially, my average number purchased went up while my average cost per coin went down. I think that’s primarily what’s driving the ATBs this year.

  45. VABEACHBUM says

    @ ThePhelps – Not on the ledge. Not even near a stairwell leading to a roof that might have a ledge. And, in looking at my previous comment, I did not state or otherwise imply that the US Mint was over-producing the ATB-P coins.

    SilverFan offered a comparison without context. I indicated that a comparison to any other US Mint numismatic coin is out of context – as the ATB-P is the only 5 oz silver numismatic offering from the US Mint. Meanwhile, several other World Mints offer at least one, and sometimes multiple, 5 oz silver numismatic product(s) every year, thus providing a product comparison with much better context. Still, most of those World Mint 5 oz coins do not sell well due to their poor combination of average subject matter, steep product pricing and exhorbitant shipping charges.

    As I said earlier, and to reiterate Gary’s thoughts and C.O.’s “Sweet Spot” comment, the ATB-Ps have finally combined the best of both worlds – they now are presenting some very appealing designs AND they have fallen into an acceptable price range accommodating a larger group of collectors. I buy them because I like them and can afford to add them to my collection. If I see a return at some time in the future, all the better.

  46. oldfolkie says

    I do think the ATBs are just catching on in a bigger way, but I do see a concern with the fact most all the true, “National Parks are now done, and what we will have in the future are obscure lesser known monuments that could be OK if the designs are excellent, but some that I’ve seen for next year were pretty poor. Sometimes I think this series will do better as subsets than an entire collection. I see all the true National Parks doing the best. All the low mintage “Parks” from the past are the ones I’d get an extra one or two of. I wish I could afford to put away another P Hawaii, and Acadia as I think they will be the keys to this set, great designs, low mintage, and true “National Parks” It is a shame that great Parks like Grand Teton, Rocky Mountain, Bryce, Zion, and quite a few others are being left off just to make sure every state has a representative. Regardless I love these coins and just hope for great designs in the future, as I think this years are very special. As I side note, I’ve been to the location on the Shenandoah coin many times over the years and we even took a family picture there 2 summers ago. Never have I seen anyone stand behind the rock formation to addmire the view. you stand on the rock or sit on the rock. Picky I know, but it would’ve been more realistic to me. But then I’d have put Teddy on the obverse as well.

  47. VABEACHBUM says

    @ Gary – yeah, I remember doling out my $1100 to buy all five 2010 BU coins as a set from one of the Mint’s Authorized Purchasers. Also remember all of the wailing, moaning and nashing of teeth when the “Hot Springs” ATB-P went on sale in MAR 2011 for $279. Everyone was concerned about the small authorized mintages caused by the production problems and the accelerated timelines. As it turns out, dimished interest and pricing thresholds would cause some of the future releases to have even smaller mintages!!!

    No regrets, though; I’m glad I started the 5 oz ATB programs in 2010 and have continued to support them towards the half-way point.

  48. S. Knight says

    Everything will matter on the price of silver going forward, mixed with the economy/incomes, and trumped by shortages of some kind or another.

    Those early coins are still pretty low:

    bullion uncirculated total
    2010 Hot Springs 33,000 27,000 60,000
    Yellowstone 33,000 27,000 60,000
    Yosemite 33,000 27,000 60,000
    Grand Caynon 33,000 26,019 59,019
    Mount Hood 33,000 26,928 59,928

    2011 Gettysburg 126,700 24,625 151,325
    Glacier 126,700 20,856 147,556
    Olympic 95,600 18,398 113,998
    Vicksburg 41,200 18,594 59,794
    Chickasaw 31,400 16,827 48,227

    2012 El Yunque 24,000 17,314 41,314
    Chaco 24,400 17,146 41,546
    Arcadia 25,400 14,978 40,378
    Hawaii 20,000 14,863 34,863
    Denali 20,000 15,225 35,225

    2013 White Mountain 35,000 20,530 55,530
    Perry’s Victory 30,000 17,707 47,707
    Great Basin 30,000 17,792 47,792
    Fort McHenry 30,000 19,802 49,802
    Mt. Rushmore 35,000 23,527 58,527

    Totals 860,400 412,131 1,272,531

  49. S. Knight says

    Although it is fantastic to have a low mintage coin sadly it also has to have some popularity to give it numismatic FLARE. Sometimes like in 1915 that $50 gold coin popularity was slow in coming. Or that 50 cent Hawaii piece from the 1930s – the same. Now those puppies are worth a few bucks – they are. You have to have a mixture of popularity combined with low mintage and another mint screw-up for a HOME RUN! On that rabbit trail…

    Baseball has been good to coin flare: i.e. Jackie Robinson especially the gold UNC one . As for me commemorative coins
    are like hula-hoops in the 1950s – FADS fade. I did grab all the low ball gold coin mintages from the last few years like the 5 star unc, the medal of honor unc, the army unc – to name a few they were close to my numbers below.

    That being said , please remember that anything silver under, say, 17,000 mintage is really really really low from the US mint – anything! Dang me, please search the records. DYODD.

    Anything gold under, say, 5,000 mintage is really really really low too.

    As for me and the the ones living in the family:note that Mommy drowned all the dumb ones!

    We do buy at less than those levels.

    IE Silver under 17,000 anything – Gold under 5,000 anything just on the odds that these are the lowest 50 or so coins minted in America.

  50. Natatack says

    I can imagine if the HOF had a 17000/5000 mintage, it would have been a real challenge to get a single one. IMHO the HOF coin has the right stuff to keep it at a premium like the buffalo did, but not sure how high after the hype wears off. The design itself is simple but classic with no reference to race, gender, age, team affiliations, player specific so it can have more appeal to the masses.
    Knight I hope the low mintage issues work out for you in the long term term. I had that happen with gold panda coins that I saved and the majority had been used in jewelry and the unc pop survival rate turned out really low, more so than the proof issues which were not used widely in jewelry. I remember back in the old days when you sent in the orders to the mint with a check or M.O. And hope they didn’t sell out.

  51. Greg says

    So help out a novice here guys: I see the two production numbers for each coin, so there is a collectable one (what’s the property term- proof?) and then there is the bullion coins. What’s the differences? I’ve seen some of these coins encapsulated without the box and COA and being sold in Ebay- do I consider them as bullion and worth less then? Thanks for the education!
    Greg.

  52. Andrew Gartner says

    I work in Philadelphia and visit the mint about once every two months. On my visit today (6/17/2014) I picked up two rolls of the new Arches quarter. I also saw the gift shop at Philadelphia Mint has Great Smokey Mountain 5oz coin. It’s on display and in stock. I saw one sales person with a box of them.

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