Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Proof Gold Eagle Opening Sales Figures

The opening sales figures are now available for the recently released 2012 Proof Gold Eagles. The numbers are very weak compared to the past two years.

The table below displays the sales for each product option, the maximum established by the US Mint for each production option, and the percentage that has been sold so far.

2012 Proof Gold Eagle Sales
Sales Maximum Percentage
1 oz 1,757 30,000 5.86%
1/2 oz 449 10,000 4.49%
1/4 oz 433 12,000 3.61%
1/10 oz 1,394 25,000 5.58%
4 Coin Set 1,084 30,000 3.61%

The figures above represent sales through April 23, 2012. See the full report on Coin Update News.

After the cancellation of the Proof Gold Eagles in 2009, secondary market prices for prior year issues rose, and by the time the 2010 coins were released, there was a great deal of pent up demand and excitement surrounding the offering. This led to robust sales for the 2010 Proof Gold Eagles, with the individual one ounce option reaching more than 50% of the product limit within the opening days of sales. The response to the release of the 2011 Proof Gold Eagles was less enthusiastic, with sales down between 44% and 53% from the prior year. For this year’s release sales have dropped another 61% to 76% from the already reduced levels.

Here is a comparison of the opening sales figures for the past three years.

Proof Gold Eagle Opening Sales Figures
2010 2011 2012
1 oz 13,980 7,249 1,757
1/2 oz 2,173 1,159 449
1/4 oz 2,780 1,313 433
1/10 oz 6,945 3,680 1,394
4 Coin Set 7,147 3,988 1,084

There are a number of factors likely contributing to the drop off in sales. Over the past few years, the US Mint has caught up with demand for bullion coins, allowing more certainty for the numismatic offerings. The sense of urgency and pent up demand that characterized the product return in 2010 has greatly diminished. There also seems to be a shift away from precious metals in recent months, with some moving back to collector coins. Sales of the US Mint’s Gold Eagle bullion coins were down 30% in the first quarter.

Gold prices may also be having an impact in various ways. For the past two years, the Proof Gold Eagles were released in an environment of rising prices. For the current year, prices have fallen over the past two months leading up to the release. Despite this recent drop, the initial prices for this year’s offerings were higher by the equivalent of $200 per troy ounce compared to last year, possibly making affordability a factor for some collectors. Finally, some collectors may have been delaying orders in anticipation of the price decrease which will take place later today.

Elsewhere in the sales report, weakness was apparent for the recently released 2012 Proof Silver Eagle. After starting with sales of 299,539 last week, this week’s sales registered at only 29,117, bringing the total to 328,656. Last year, sales had reached 407,991 by the second sales report.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

2012 Proof Gold Eagles

The United States Mint will begin sales of the 2012 American Gold Eagle Proof Coins today April 19, 2012 at 12:00 Noon ET. Available products will include individual tenth, quarter, half, and one ounce coins, as well as a four coin set.

The American Gold Eagle features Augustus Saint Gaudens’ depiction of Liberty holding a lit torch and olive branch. The US Capitol building and rays of the rising sun appear in the background with 50 stars surrounding the image. The reverse design features a depiction of a family of eagles designed by Miley Busiek. The same obverse and reverse design has been used since the introduction of the series in 1986. Proof versions have been struck for collectors each year, with the exception of 2009, when the offering was cancelled.

The US Mint has established product limits for the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles, which represent a reduction from the levels of the prior year. Specifically, the individual half ounce has been reduced from 15,000 to 10,000; the individual quarter ounce has been reduced from 16,000 to 12,000; the individual tenth ounce has been reduced from 30,000 to 25,000; and the four coin set has been reduced from 40,000 to 30,000.

Pricing for the coins is based on the average weekly market price of gold, and will remain subject to potential change on a weekly basis. This grid displays the prices for the coins for average gold prices at $50 intervals. For the start of sales, pricing is based on an average gold price in the $1,650.00 to $1,699.99 range. These prices are the equivalent of $200 per ounce higher compared to prices in effect at the start of sales for the 2011 Proof Gold Eagles.

The release date for this year’s Proof Gold Eagles is roughly in line with the timing of last year’s release on April 21, 2011. All but one option for the 2011 Proof Gold Eagles have now sold out at the US Mint, with only the four coin set option remaining available for sale.

A summary of the product limit, mintage limit, and initial price for each 2012 Proof Gold Eagle product is shown below.

2012 American Gold Eagle Proof Coins
Product Limit Mintage Limit Initial Price
1 oz. 30,000 60,000 $1,935.00
1/2 oz. 10,000 40,000 $981.00
1/4 oz. 12,000 42,000 $503.00
1/10 oz. 25,000 55,000 $215.50
4 Coin Set 30,000 N/A $3,585.50

Last year, the US Mint also offered the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle. This collectible uncirculated version of the coin went on sale May 5, 2011. The Mint has not yet indicated whether this product will be offered for the current year, but so far it has not been listed on the upcoming product schedule.

Friday, April 13, 2012

One-Tenth Ounce Proof Gold Eagle Sold Out

Yesterday, the individual product option for the one-tenth ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagle sold out at the US Mint.

Five different product options for the 2011 Proof Gold Eagle had originally went on sale at the US Mint on April 20, 2011. With the latest sell out, all of the individual options have sold out, leaving only the four coin set option available for sale.

The individual one ounce coins had sold out on October 14, 2011 after receiving orders for the entire product limit of 30,000. This was followed by the sell out of the individual one-quarter ounce coins on December 28, 2011 and one-half ounce coins on February 27, 2012.

The half, quarter, and tenth ounce coins all sold out with sales levels below the established maximum product limit.

2011 Proof Gold Eagle Products

Product Limit Sales
One Ounce 30,000 30,000
One Half Ounce 15,000 8,066
One Quarter Ounce 16,000 10,381
On Tenth Ounce 30,000 23,926
Four Coin Set 40,000 17,991

Looking ahead, the US Mint will begin sales of the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles on April 19, 2012. Once again, there will be individual one ounce, half ounce, quarter ounce, and tenth ounce coins, as well as a four coin set available. The Mint has reduced the product limits for several options, which basically bring them into line with the actual sales achieved for the 2011 coins.

2012 Proof Gold Eagle Products

Product Limit
One Ounce 30,000
One Half Ounce 10,000
One Quarter Ounce 12,000
On Tenth Ounce 25,000
Four Coin Set 30,000

There will be a full post dedicated to the 2012 Proof Gold Eagles next week, ahead of the start of sales.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

2011-W Uncirculated $50 Gold Eagle Sold Out

Yesterday, the one ounce 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle sold out on the US Mint’s website. The latest available sales figures show a strong possibility that this coin may mark a new mintage low across all American Gold Eagles.

From 2006 to 2008, the United States Mint offered collectible uncirculated versions of the American Gold Eagle, individually in four denominations or as a complete four coin set. These coins were struck on specially burnished blanks and carried the “W” mint mark. Near the end of 2008, the US Mint announced the cancellation of the fractional versions of the coins, with plans to offer only the one ounce size in the following year. This never came to pass, as high demand for bullion coins resulted in the cancellation of numismatic offerings. The one ounce collectible uncirculated Gold Eagle was similarly cancelled in 2010.

After the two year hiatus, the US Mint once again offered 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle on May 5, 2011. From the outset, I had mentioned the possibility for a low mintage to occur. The collectible uncirculated coins never managed to generate the same interest level as the proof versions of the coins, and even after a two year absence, there did not seem to be a great deal of pent up demand.

The initial sales for the product came in rather low at 1,098 and proceeded at a relatively subdued level. There were some spikes in sales during the course of the offering, particularly during the unusual period when some of the US Mint’s numismatic gold coins were selling near bullion prices.

The most recent sales report, just published today shows sales for the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle at 8,810. The sales reporting date is the same day that the coins sold out, so it is possible that an updated figure may be provided next week. Also bear in mind that these are sales figures, not final audited mintage figures, which the US Mint can sometimes take years to release. However, as it currently stands, this would represent a new mintage low across all denominations and versions of the American Gold Eagle.

The three next lowest mintage Gold Eagles are shown below.

Low Mintage American Gold Eagles

2008-W $10 Uncirculated Gold Eagle 8,883
2006-W $50 Reverse Proof Gold Eagle  9,996
2007-W $25 Uncirculated Gold Eagle  11,455

 

The current mintage low 2008-W Uncirculated $10 Gold Eagle has sold for prices of more than $1,000 on the secondary market, which represents a significant increase in value for quarter ounce gold coin. If memory serves, prices didn’t reach this level until about a year after the initial sell out.

How will the 2011-W Uncirculated $50 Gold Eagle fare? There might be an immediate price bump, but in the longer term I think it will depend in great part on whether the US Mint continues to offer collectible uncirculated Gold Eagles in the coming years. If the coins continue to be offered, mintages may creep even lower for future years, particularly if gold prices continue higher. This would make the 2011-W less exceptional. However, if the US Mint discontinues the offering, this would solidify the status of the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle as the mintage low for the series, making the coin much more significant.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Individual One Ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagle Sold Out

On Friday, the US Mint officially sold out of the individual option for the one ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagle. The coin does remain available for sale as part of the four coin set.

I believe this is the first 2011-dated US Mint numismatic product to achieve a sell out of the maximum product limit.

The 2011 Proof Gold Eagles originally went on sale April 20, 2011. The original price for the individual one ounce coin was $1,735, which was adjusted throughout the course of the offering based on the average market price of gold. During the course of the offering the price ranged from a low of $1,735 to a high of $2,135. At the time of the sell out, the price was $1,935.

The maximum product limit for the individual option was 30,000 coins. The limit for the four coin set is 40,000. Sales for the set have reached 11,765 based on the latest available data.

The individual one ounce 2011 Proof Gold Eagle had been just under the sell out level for some time. Near the end of August sales exceeded 29,000 units, and then reached 29,917 in the following week. For the next several weeks, sales reports indicated negative or minimal sales. Finally, the latest report covering the week ending October 10, showed a big jump which brought total sales back near the sell out mark.

The period of slow and negative sales figures coincided with the recent decline in the market price of gold.

In an interesting bit of news, the US Mint has recently extended their numismatic pricing grid to cover average gold market prices up to $2,999.99 per ounce. Previously the chart only went up to $2,049.99.