Coverage of the Mint News Blog survey will conclude with this post. The final question of the survey asked readers to make bold prediction for something completely unexpected that will happen in 2011 related to the US Mint or coins.

Some of last year’s bold predictions proved to be surprisingly accurate. Will the same be true for this year?

I picked out a representative selection of this year’s predictions, which are republished below:

“Suspension of American Silver Eagles due to shortage of blanks – will occur by May, 2011.”

“The US Congress will vote to end the First Spouse Gold Coin program because of limited demand due to the high price of gold.”

“They’ll cut back even further on basic commemorative coins and basic coin sets for beginner collectors to concentrate on the ‘big profit’ items. A long-term mistake. Entry level collectors can’t afford the high-priced items.”

“ATB bullion prices on the secondary market will drop.”

“Mint will introduce a high relief American Silver Eagle 25th Anniversary Coin, limited edition for collectors.”

“Silver and Gold prices will spike, then crash moderately back just below (~20%) current levels.”

“The government issues steel pennies and 5 cent pieces.”

“The US Mint will suspend an Authorized Purchaser for violating the rules for distributing the 2010 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins.”

“Less than 100,000 Proof ASE will be produced. End of series.”

“$2 coin.”

“I’ll finally find a 2010 quarter in circulation.”

“The mint WILL make fractional Gold Buffaloes and American Gold Eagles. The palladium coin will not be minted. There will be a new ‘error coin’ in 2011.”

“Mint will seek legislative authority to produce half ounce silver bullion coins”

“New high relief silver coin similar to Australia’s.”

“The US mint will start making the planchets for the Silver Eagles at West Point.”

“The number of US Mint products will decrease by a third.”

“2011 Proof Gold Buffalo early sell out.”

“The Mint will suspend sales of the silver ATB proof sets and the annual silver proof sets when the price of silver at melt exceeds the established mint price.”

“The mint will start selling Silver Eagles directly to the collectors.”

“2011 and beyond… The satin 2010 Lincoln cents will become the key date of the entire shield-type series, which will last until 2059. It will be the only satin finish of the entire series and probably the lowest mintage. The 2010 satin finish unc set will probably sell a relatively high 1.5 million sets by 12/31/2011, even with this, the 2010 lincoln cent will command a premium. Ditto the satin finish ATB quarters (only offered in 2010) which will command a premium and be the key dates of the entire ATB series from 2010 to 2021, even if there mintage is 1.5 million.”

“The U.S. Mint will introduce a customer loyalty program that offers a special silver American Buffalo coin to collectors that purchase over $2,011 worth of coins in 2011.”

“One of the commemorative dollars will have a record minimum mintage for the past 10 years.”

“The U.S. mint will begin production of 1/20th ounce gold coins.”

“The mint will not sell the numismatic version of the 5 oz coins.”

“A denomination for circulation will be eliminated.”

“The US Mint will release the 2011-W burnished Silver Eagle and mintage will be less than 100,000.”

“Palladium blanks will not be available to meet US Mint customer demand for the new 1 oz palladium coin.”

“The U.S. Mint will produce Rhodium coins.”

“The palladium coins will have an extremely low mintage of less than 10,000 causing the secondary market to drive the prices up ten fold.”

“New Director of the US Mint quits before year end.”

“US Mint will delay and then cease selling the Gold Eagles and Buffaloes.”

“A genuine 1964-D Peace dollar will surface.”

“The 1933 St. Gaudens Double Eagles will become legal to own.”

“The number of First Spouse Gold Coins will be limited to 5,000 of each.”

“Anyone who wants an ATB 5 oz silver coin will be able to actually get one!”

“Sales of silver coins of all varieties – ATB, Eagles, etc. – will be suspended due to lack of physical silver.”

“Sales will drop off more than 50%, due to price.”

“Silver will be rationed… again.”

“The law will change and allow the Mint to sell 5 ounce silver ATB coins directly to the public.”

“Falling precious metals prices results in dumping of previously ‘rare’ coins.”

“The Mint will ask Congress for permission to stop making pennies. The issue will not be resolved in 2011.”

“There will finally be a move to eliminate the dollar banknote.”

“The US Mint will develop a process for fairly distributing products, giving more people an opportunity to obtain desirable products.”

“Change the design of the dime.”

“The Mint’s website will not crash when the 5 oz coins go on sale. Sellout in less than 2 hours.”

“The new Mint Director will fulfill Edmund Moy’s statement of bringing about a neo-renaissance in coin design and we will see some of the greatest designs in our history.”

The latest installment of results for the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey will cover the questions dealing with precious metals prices and predictions about bullion coins. The survey was open from December 31, 2010 until January 9, 2011 and had almost 700 respondents.

Will the price of gold rise or fall in 2011?

The majority of readers at 82.78% believe that the price of gold will rise in 2011.

As a point of comparison, last year’s survey asked the same question, and 74.18% of readers believed that gold would rise during 2010.

These readers were correct, with the price of gold rising by $306.25 to close at $1,410.25 (London Fix). This represented the eleventh consecutive year that the price of gold has risen.

Guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $1,655,51

Distribution of Guesses:

Readers were asked to guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011. The guesses spanned a wide range, with the majority calling for a higher price. Taking an average of all guesses yields $1,655.61. This would represent an annual gain of $245.36 or 17.40%.

Last year’s survey asked readers to predict the closing price of gold on December 31, 2010. The average guess was $1,375.13, not too far from the actual closing price of $1,410.25.

Will the price of silver rise or fall in 2011?

The majority of readers believed that the price of silver would rise during the year, at 81.62% of the vote.

Guess the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $45.22

Distribution of Guesses:

There were 601 guesses submitted by readers for the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011. The average was $45.22, which would represent an increase of $14.59 or 47.63% from the closing price on December 31, 2010.

During 2010, the price of silver had risen by $13.64 per ounce to close at $30.63 (London Fix), representing an annual gain of 80.28%.

Will the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold in 2011 rise or fall compared to the number sold in 2010?

For three consecutive years, the US Mint has achieved record breaking annual sales for the one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. Total annual sales for the past three years have been 19,583,000 in 2008, 28,766,500 in 2009, and 34,662,500 in 2010.

Survey results show that 61.07% of readers believe the Silver Eagle bullion coins will achieve higher sales this year. The US Mint has already sold 4,724,000 ounces worth of Silver Eagles after just three weeks. If sales continue at even half this pace for the remainder of the year, another new annual record will be established.

By law, the US Mint is required to produce Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities necessary to meet public demand. However, in practice, the number of coins has been limited to the number of planchets that could be acquired from suppliers and the requirements from other mandatory silver coin programs. The US Mint is currently rationing sales of Silver Eagle bullion coins.

How many 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will the US Mint produce across all designs?

The United States Mint initially indicated that they intended to strike 500,000 of the 2010 ATB Silver Bullion Coins, divided equally amongst the five different designs. The Mint later announced that the bullion mintage would only be 165,000 in total, or 33,000 coins per design. This incredibly low mintage and the complications of distribution have kept the coins difficult to acquire and secondary market prices high.

Most readers predict that mintage levels for the 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will remain low, especially when compared to the massive amount of Silver Eagles struck each year. By law, the US Mint is required to produce and issue the ATB Silver Bullion coins in quantities that the Secretary of the Treasury “determines to be appropriate.”

Almost 700 Mint News Blog readers responded to a year-end survey on United States Mint products and coins. The second post covering the survey results will discuss the biggest disappointment of 2010, the most anticipated product of 2011, and the American Palladium Eagle.

What was the biggest disappointment or frustration of 2010?

With 38.08% of the vote, the top response was the difficulty obtaining the America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins.

For much of the year, anticipation had been running high for this new US Mint bullion product. After a series of delays, the US Mint finally announced that they would begin accepting orders from authorized purchasers on December 6, 2009. Rather than the previously indicated mintage of 100,000 coins per design, the mintage would be a scant 33,000 coins per design.

Ahead of the release date, the prices charged by one of the US Mint’s authorized purchasers resulted in widespread complaints. The US Mint responded by halting the program and later relaunching with a set of specific terms and conditions for authorized purchasers. Among other things, the AP’s would be limited to a mark up of 10% above acquisition cost, would need to enforce a one per household ordering limit, and would need to make all coins that they acquired available for sale to the public.

Nine out of eleven of the AP’s agreed to the terms and ordered their allocations. Unfortunately, despite the steps taken by the Mint, frustration about the situation has continued. Some secondary market sources have managed to acquire dozens or hundreds of the ATB silver bullion coins, raising questions about the distribution. Some AP’s are still sitting on their allocations while they either scramble to set up retail sales operations or for other unknown reasons. One AP has indicated that they won’t begin sales until the second quarter. The few AP’s who have offered their coins for sale have experienced an avalanche of orders, riddled with attempts to get around the household limits.

Coin Update News contributor Louis Golino has just written an article summarizing the current situation and providing his thoughts on the implications. You can read his article here.

The survey option which gathered the second highest number of votes was the higher pricing for US Mint annual sets and other products, with 21.37% of responses. Unfortunately (again), this situation is not getting any better. The US Mint subsequently announced price increases across nearly all product categories for 2011.

The write-in responses from readers who selected “other” included: too many coins being issued, quality of coins within US Mint products, lack of Platinum Eagle bullion coins, the proliferation of derivative products, lack of US Mint communication, the incorrectly sent 2010 Proof Silver Eagle cancellation email, responses indicating “none,” and various combinations of the listed options.

Of the scheduled or anticipated US Mint numismatic products to be released in 2011, what are you looking forward to the most?

Based on survey responses, the most anticipated numismatic product of this year is the numismatic versions of the America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Coins. The 2010 coins will carry even lower mintages than the bullion versions at just 27,000 per design. Since they are numismatic products, they will be sold directly by the United States Mint.

Previously, the Mint indicated that sales would begin in the first quarter of 2011. So far, exact dates have not yet been provided, nor has the US Mint announced specific procedures for sales. All of the 2010 and 2011 designs are listed individually on the US Mint’s product schedule, suggesting that the coins will be offered individually rather than in sets.

The next most anticipated products were the 2011 Proof Silver Eagle with 17.47% of the vote, followed by the year’s two commemorative coin programs featuring the U.S. Army and the Medal of Honor.

The write-in responses for readers who indicated “other” included 2011 America the Beautiful Quarters or related products, 2011 Proof Set, 2011 Mint Set, American Palladium Eagles (these may or may not be issued in 2011), 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, 2011-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle (the possibility of this product remains uncertain), and responses indicating “nothing.”

Do you plan to buy the American Palladium Eagles?

Near the end of 2010, a bill was signed into law which will likely result in the issuance of a new one ounce .9995 fine palladium bullion and collector coin.

The American Palladium Eagle would feature the obverse design of the Mercury Dime and the reverse design of the 1907 American Institute of Architects Medal. Both designs by Adolph A. Weinman would be rendered in high relief.

The release date of the coins remains unknown. A marketing study is required to be performed to ensure that adequate demand exists for palladium bullion coins produced by the United States Mint. Within not more than one year after the submission of the study, the coins are required to be issued.

Altogether 31.69% of readers indicated that they intend to buy the bullion and/or numismatic version of the coin. Roughly the same percentage indicated that they would not buy either version of the coin. The remaining 37.34% of readers remain on the fence until pricing or other factors about the coins become known.

Just before the end of last year, I put together a survey for readers of Mint News Blog. This survey asked a brief series of questions looking back over US Mint coins and products of 2010, and looking forward to the coming year. An opportunity to make predictions was also provided.

In a series of four posts, I will report on the results of the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey. There were just under 700 responses from readers. Thank you to everyone who took the time to participate.

This was the second year for the survey. The first survey had provided some great insights and surprisingly accurate predictions. (See my post revisiting the results after one year.) I hope that this year’s survey will provide a similar experience.

What was your favorite US Mint numismatic product released in 2010?

Top 5 Responses

The favorite numismatic product of readers was the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle, with 38.49% of the vote. The top result was not too surprising. In last year’s survey, the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Silver Eagle had been voted as the biggest disappointment of the year. After this one year hiatus, the popular product made its return.

The release of the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle was not without some issues. One week prior to the launch, about 100,000 US Mint subscription customers received email notifications stating that the product was sold out and orders canceled. Soon after sales began, the US Mint discovered that about 2,200 orders placed via the internet had been deleted in error. Overall, the coins were available from the US Mint from November 19, 2010 to December 28, 2010. The last reported sales were 860,000 coins.

Other products in the top five for favorite product included the 2010 Proof Gold Buffalo with 11.87% of the vote, the James Buchanan’s Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin with 11.29% of the vote, and the Boy Scouts of America Centennial Silver Dollar at 7.81%.

The “Other” category received 11.72% of the vote. The write-in responses in order of frequency included various America the Beautiful Quarters Sets, America the Beautiful 5 oz Silver Bullion Coins (this was not included in the choices since the numismatic version was not offered yet), 2010 Silver Proof Set, and various responses indicating “nothing.”

Including only newly issued designs, what was the best US Mint Coin design of the year?

Top 5 Responses

The 2010 Lincoln Cent design attracted the highest number of votes for the best US Mint coin design of the year. The reverse features an image of the Union Shield with thirteen vertical stripes bound by a horizontal bar with the inscription “E Pluribus Unum”. This symbolizes the original thirteen states joined together in one compact union to support the federal government. A scroll across the lower portion of the shield contains the denomination “One Cent” with “United States of America” above.

The 2010 Lincoln Cent reverse was designed by Lyndall Bass and sculpted by Joseph Menna. The design was chosen from a field of 18 original design candidates to symbolize Lincoln’s preservation of the United States as a single and united country.

Coming in second place was the 2010 Native American Dollar, which features the Hiawatha Belt, a visual representation of the Haudenosaunee or Iroquois Confederacy. Closely following in third was the 2010 Proof Platinum Eagle, which features a blindfolded Justice holding scales and an olive branch.

Fourth and fifth place were taken by the James Buchanan’s Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin and Mount Hood National Forest Quarter.

Only one of the 19 options included in the survey question failed to receive a single vote. This was the Franklin Pierce Presidential Dollar.

The results from the annual survey differ from a separate survey taken at mid-year for coins released up to that point. The 2010 Lincoln Cent and 2010 Native American Dollar traded the top two spots. The third, fourth, and fifth place coins were replaced with other 2010 coins released in the second half of the year.

As a way of wrapping up 2010 and looking ahead to 2011, I have created a survey for Mint News Blog readers. The questions are related to US Mint numismatic products, coins, and precious metals.

Last year about 700 people responded to the survey, providing some interesting insights and surprisingly accurate predictions. This year, the survey is a little bit shorter with fewer open ended responses to provide better focus for the coverage of results.

Take the Mint News Blog 2011 Survey

The survey will remain open through January 9, 2011. Only one response per person is allowed. Coverage of the survey responses will take place on Mint News Blog throughout the month January.

Happy New Year Everyone!