The inverse relationship of precious metals and Bitcoin

Background image by Uberpenguin.

In my previous article discussing the rise of Bitcoin as a possible form of digital bullion, I compared and contrasted its measure of value in comparison to gold and silver bullion. When I wrote my first article, the value of Bitcoin was rising toward an impressive $20,000 in value, and — as experts had predicted — it fell in value once more to a low of around $6,000 earlier this month. It has just now returned to a value of near $11,000 for the first time this year. While Bitcoin appears to rise and fall in a cyclical nature, when it actually decides to rapidly increase or decrease in value is still risky to assess as an investor. As experts have previously suggested, a currency that fluctuates in value as much as Bitcoin tends to be a sign of its weakness rather than its strength — so how do gold and silver measure up?

Hover to zoom. Image courtesy of APMEX.

According to APMEX, which has tracked the price of gold per ounce since February 16, 1987, the precious metal is currently sitting at $1,348.90 per ounce. The highest price gold reached during this period of 31 years was $1,864.12 on September 5, 2011. It was speculated that this may have been due to a growing accumulation of debt by European countries like Greece and Ireland that year. And, of course, many of the world’s economies were still recovering from the Great Recession of 2008. While there have been some fluctuations here and there, the price of gold has held a noticeable upward trend in growth since 2015. Being a relatively new and speculative form of currency, Bitcoin appears to double and half itself in value during the same month at times.

Image courtesy of APMEX.

Silver, on the other hand, appears to have the same growth trend as gold until around January 21, 2013, when its value sharply cut in half over the subsequent months (from $31.95 in January to $19.97 in August of the same year). Silver currently sits at a value of $16.74 per ounce. Silver’s sudden drop in value in 2013 can partially be explained by advancements in technology, particularly with photography and electronics — the former for switching largely to digital media and the latter for decreases in the size of appliances that use silver. However, what’s interesting to note is that gold faced a similar drop in 2013 as well (though not as severe and noticeable as the one for silver), having gone from $1,684.88 in January to $1,300.40 in August. This suggests that there is at least one common factor that caused both precious metals to suddenly decrease in value that year.

A Good Delivery bar, the standard for trade in the major international gold markets.

It appears that since January 2013, while gold and silver are still more valuable than they were before 2011, they have not yet returned to their peak value between the years of 2011 and 2013. Why is this? What happened during those years to cause this spike and subsequent fall in the value of gold and silver? The answer is rather complicated, and while not all factors are known, what most investors understand is that when political and economic turmoil are high, precious metal prices tend to rise in value with the chaos. In short, the value of gold and silver holds an inverse relationship with the health of the economy.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 2008 and 2012, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold experienced a 101.1 percent surge in value. We all know what happened in 2008 to create economic turmoil. On the other hand, the Bureau notes that during times of economic prosperity:

Investors are more likely to turn to more speculative investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. During these times, the price for gold often declines.

Bitcoin price history chart, linear scale. Year numbers are placed around the middle of the designated year.

Enter Bitcoin in 2009, a more “speculative” investment than precious metals. Since the Bureau and a variety of other sources have determined that increasing values of precious metals indicate economic turmoil, then the increase in the value of speculative investments like Bitcoin seems to indicate a healthy economy. While this relationship may not be perfect, it appears that precious metals and Bitcoin share a sort of connection that allows investors to crudely assess the relative health of the economy and when it is best to invest in either tangible assets or speculative ones. Utilizing this knowledge, we can determine that 2013 was the economic turning point for the great recession in the United States, given the sudden drop in the value of both gold and silver. Not surprisingly, the notorious cryptocurrency experienced its first surge in value in 2013 as well.


While Bitcoin fluctuates more rapidly and less predictably than gold and silver, it may be that it is now becoming one of the many speculative investments like stocks and bonds that we can indirectly use to assess the health of the economy. Today’s investors might conclude that silver and gold should be bought during economically prosperous times, and sold during economically hectic times — and that the best time for speculative investments like Bitcoin is the opposite. Could this crucial distinction save your wallet? Only time will tell.

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Comments

  1. earthling says

    Too much Fiat out there in the World? No worries , Bitcoin is here. Things are going to work out. Problems will soon disappear in a flash.

  2. Darek says

    I have a question for someone who collected First Spouse gold coins. I keep all of mine FS coins in their original capsules in the zip bag, and I am planning to reorganize my storage. I want to buy some coin tubes and put the coins there. Which tubes should I get, so the capsules would fit easily, and how many capsules would fit inside? Same question for the 1oz Buffalo coins. Thank you.

  3. cagcrisp says

    Brandon Hall said ” Today’s investors might conclude that silver and gold should be bought during economically prosperous times, and sold during economically hectic times — and that the best time for speculative investments like Bitcoin is the opposite.”

    Could Not Disagree More…

  4. Daveinswfl says

    Wow – bitcoin article on USMint blog.
    What’s next – Russian interference in the bullion puck delay?

  5. cagcrisp says

    @KCSO, This weeks numbers takes out your Low Side of 25k…

    18XF 2018 AM LIBERTY 24K GOLD 1/10 OZ 16,511 + 2,216

  6. cagcrisp says

    16AN 2016 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – FT MLTR 17,882 –
    17AJ 2017 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – EFF MNDS 16,612 +11
    17AK 2017 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – DOUGLASS 17,024 + 42
    17AL 2017 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – OZARK 16,871 + 37
    17AM 2017 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – ELLIS ISLAND 17,694 –
    17AN 2017 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – G R CLARK 14,739 (2)

  7. cagcrisp says

    16EA 2016 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ 585,257 +280
    16EB 2016 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 1 OZ 24,074 + 3
    16EC 2016 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 1/2 OZ 5,923 –
    16EG 2016 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ 216,501 (2)

  8. cagcrisp says

    17EA 2017 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ 375,344 +440

    17EB 2017 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 1 OZ 8,694 +42
    17EC 2017 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 1/2 OZ 2,402 +19
    17ED 2017 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 1/4 OZ 4,285 + 25
    17EF 2017 AM EAGLE GOLD PROOF 4-COIN SET 9,812 –

    17EG 2017 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ 141,254 +141

    17EL 2017 AM BUFFALO GOLD PROOF 1 OZ 15,802 + 33

  9. cagcrisp says

    18EA 2018 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ (W) 243,668 (1,222)
    18EA042 2018 AM EAGLE SILVER PROOF 1 OZ – BULK (W) 182 (4)
    18EJ 2018 AM EAGLE PLATINUM PROOF 1 OZ 9,047 (199)

  10. cagcrisp says

    17CA 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD PROOF 1,822 –
    17CB 2017 BOYS TOWN GOLD UNC 2,947 –
    17CC 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER PROOF 26,085 –
    17CD 2017 BOYS TOWN SILVER UNC 12,234 –
    17CE 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD PROOF 17,639 (5)
    17CF 2017 BOYS TOWN CLAD UNC 15,527 (5)

  11. cagcrisp says

    17XA 2017 AM LIBERTY 24K GOLD 1 OZ 27,818 + 43
    17XB 2017 AM LIBERTY SILVER MEDAL (P) 55,199 + 7
    17XC 2017 225TH ANN ENHANCED UNC SET 210,425 –
    17XD 2017 AM LIBERTY SILVER 4-MEDAL SET 29,957 +100

  12. cagcrisp says

    18CA 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL SILVER PROOF 36,730 +4,089
    18CB 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL SILVER UNC 15,108 + 1,253
    18CC 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – ARMY 15,161 + 1,131
    18CD 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – AIR SERV 12,164 + 841
    18CM 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – NAVY 11,797 +811
    18CN 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – MARINES 12,307 + 852
    18CP 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – COAST GRD 9,565 + 513

  13. cagcrisp says

    I don’t keep up with these, however, these are New Listings…

    18NA 2018 NA $1 25-COIN ROLL (P) 9,058 +9,058
    18NB 2018 NA $1 25-COIN ROLL (D) 8,900 +8,900
    18NC 2018 NA $1 250-COIN BOX (P) 1,262 +1,262
    18ND 2018 NA $1 250-COIN BOX (D) 1,117 +1,117
    18NE 2018 NA $1 100-COIN BAG (P) 471 +471
    18NF 2018 NA $1 100-COIN BAG (D) 600 +600

  14. Buzz Killington says

    @cag —

    Going one step further back, I could not disagree more with calling Bitcoin an “investment.” A scratch-off lottery ticket is not an “investment”, just because it *might* be worth more than you paid for it.

  15. cagcrisp says

    @Buzz Killington , ” The very long term isn’t written yet, and depends on variables that we can’t possibly control for, such as financially disciplined offspring. The investing goals of a disciplined retiree can be undone in one generation by a heir who is a compulsive gambler.”

    There is an old adage on Wall Street “shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in 3 generations”.

    90% of all wealth created by the 1st generation will be Gone by the 3rd generation.

    First generation makes the money, 2nd generation maintains the money and the 3rd generation Blows the money.

    I Don’t Think my family will be any different…

  16. Larry says

    I have done a lot of reading to try and understand just what a Bitcoin is. From what I have been able to figure out, Bitcoin is not the important thing, but the block chain technology Bitcoin uses is. It is like Bitcoin is just an app, but the smartphone is what is really important.
    Block chain is a method of authenticating pretty much any data, without having to use a third party. So in the case of Bitcoin, if you want to transfer a Bitcoin to someone, it authenticates you have it, it is real , and where it is going. How it does it is pretty darn complicated and I have not completely figured it out.
    I still am a bit confused on the “miners”. these appear to be computers that run all day trying to find out the “key” to unlocking a block in the block chain, and they get paid every time they do. If anyone has a good explanation, or where to find one, that would be great.
    As for what a Bitcoin is, as far as I can tell it is just 1’s and 0’s on a whole bunch of servers. I don’t know who issues them, and who, if anyone, stands behind them. They seem to be as made up as Federal Reserve Notes., which are promises to pay nothing. Give me silver and gold, something I can understand.

  17. earthling says

    If Warren Buffett said anything good about Bitcoin I might look at it positively. Until then…….

    I recall a story about someone setting up some sort of container near a Night Deposit Box at a Bank. They put up a sign saying the Vault was out of order so please put Deposits into the Container. Well, a few trusting souls actually put their Deposits into the Container. You just cant get good help these days. Imagine…. sorry Mr Manager I put the Money into the Box because the sign said the Night Vault was out of order.

    Thats how I view Cryptos. Some bogus box set up for people to put their assets into. An Enron Machine to end all Riptoinvestment Machines.

  18. Einbahnstrasse says

    @Darek-

    First Spouse gold in capsules will fit nicely in a silver dollar tube–not tight, but not too much rattling room–with nine capsules per tube. I’m afraid I can’t help with the Buffaloes.

  19. Daveinswfl says

    Where is the bitcoin “Ft. Knox” ? Is it in a cloud somewhere? Could an electromagnetic impulse wipe out the records? Is it backed up? Could our Russian “friends” hack it? Could our Chinese partners “counterfeit” it?
    As long as the price goes up, who cares. It never matters………..until it matters!
    TPTB will find a way to control it / manipulate it.
    The government will find a way to tax it.
    Criminals will find a way to steal some of it.

    Good luck to all you crypto “investors “.
    Shades of Enron, Wamu, Long Term Capital, Maddof, etc.

  20. Dustyroads says

    Larry, miners create the transactions. An interesting thing to remember, if fees become so low for miners that they quit mining, the fees go up for those who continue mining. Therefore, per to per transactions should never have to be at risk of becoming impossible. The important thing to remember now about BTC is that you will want to own it if you intent to invest in another token, say like ripple which has far greater use implications than BTC. BTC just happens to be the gold standard in the crypto space.

  21. Dustyroads says

    Larry, I should clarify, when I say “fees”I mean a reward or payment. BTW, it is noteworthy that the SEC is looking favorably on BTC. ICO’s are another story however.

  22. Larry says

    @davinswfl – the whole point of the block chain is to prevent all the things you talk about. The entire thing (data base) is distributed to the whole network, there is no central place the data is located, everyone has a copy, so you would have to take down the entire network to take it down. The Russians could not hack it, the Chinese can’t counterfeit it. It is a great concept for authenticating things between two entities without involving a third trusted party.

  23. Larry says

    @ dustyroads, saying BTC is the gold standard of crypto is like saying lion poop is the gold standard of poop. It is still poop.

  24. KCSO says

    cagcrisp says
    FEBRUARY 20, 2018 AT 12:49 PM

    @KCSO, This weeks numbers takes out your Low Side of 25k…

    18XF 2018 AM LIBERTY 24K GOLD 1/10 OZ 16,511 + 2,216

    Ha, that’s just dealer’s stocking up to reslab their labels again in anticipation of the gold price increase that didn’t happen 😉 Won’t be that # next week…

    Lion poop, gold poop, BTC poop…, 💩 is 💩

  25. KCSO says

    “That’s why you Raise prices $5.00…

    18AJ 2018 ATB SILVER UNC 5 OZ – PIC ROCKS 14,806 + 854”

    – this one surprised me.., the reason you raise your price $5 is that apparently there’s a lot of uninformed buyers out there.., so now they pay $159.95 ….oh well

  26. KCSO says

    Interesting..,

    No comments on the 2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL Sets,

    3:00 pm came and went without a whimper,

    That’s foretelling…

  27. KCSO says

    Larry – You right; I spent a lot of time trying to understand crypto currencies and I don’t understand them either.., too many origination knowns remain, though I’m smart enough to know not to touch them with a ten foot pole, unless you want to trade their daily gyrations for a 10% gain,, if it doesn’t go down 10% that day.., either way, expenses are high to trade. Once the IRS in concern with the SEC announces a plan to regulate and tax the crypto currencies.., well, they’ll be decapitated at the head.., like a ginsu slicing through that ‘mater on TV.

    You’re also right about blockchain, that’s the underlining technology that will survive as there’s a legitimate business thesis for it and likely to prosper. There’s two ETF that are ‘touted’ as a blockchain focused ETF: BLOK & BLCN.

    I own a little in BLOK; it’s nothing special and it’s holdings make it a glamourized technology fund, though it is well diversified. Bought it more for the novelty – I’ll hold it for a year, it it doesn’t perform better than the FAANGs, it’ll get dumped. Not a recommendation – DYOR

  28. MarkInFlorida says

    Once upon a time people got rich and got poor “investing” in tulip bulbs. Every generation has some fad. I’m going to stick with gold. I’ll study metallurgy so it it becomes worthless I can melt it into a nice crown for myself, and if it starts getting confiscated by the government, I can hide it in a pair of crutches that I’ll use to travel abroad for health reasons.

  29. John Q. Coinage says

    Yet to hit my ‘winning’ prediction of 1/10th selling 18,900 – opening day!!! 50k!! Heck this will be here in 2o19……along with several other offerings of this same design…Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  30. John Q. Coinage says

    YIKE$ Senior (!) Moment, HH limit on 1/10th er is.. 135,000….. wow must be based on LL THE POTHER SELLOUTS OF THIS DESIGN… not i BOUGHT A SILVER MEDAL ON EBAY VERY NICE BUT EVEN @ $33 i FELT ROBBED A TAD

  31. KEITHSTER says

    OH Say where can you see them medals are gone ?

    Oh say where can you see ? Them Medals are gone with the wind but if you check the image library you can take a peek”> Did have to order a few more of the Coast Guard in case someone gets a hair to start a set? And the free shipping is now working so they must have fixed it. Must be why they had the #’s out early but will have to wait till next weeks? Then to watch them fall even think the mint will help by sending them out early I’d say right after taxes? Cause they need some hot medal at the mint”>”>”><"<"”>”><"

    O

  32. earthling says

    When those Hawaiian Pucks went bye bye I was really rattled. I had wanted one but just kept thinking alright next week. But then they were gone.

    With this GRC I kept thinking how horrible they were. I was thinking whats the story with the schozzes on those two? Are they Brothers? When I hear S.O. on the GRC I’m thanking God.

    Maybe I can one day pick up a Hawaii Volcanoes now?

  33. So Krates says

    @ Larry – ” …is like saying lion poop is the gold standard of poop. It is still poop.”

    I believe that bat or seabird guano is the gold standard of poop.

  34. So Krates says

    @ Darek – “Silver dollar tubes = American Silver Eagle tubes ???”

    Although technically silver dollars, ASEs have a significantly larger diameter (40.6 vs. 38.1 mm) than traditional (Morgans and Peace) silver dollars. You can use either but I think @ one way street meant the smaller.

    The few FS that I have are proof and earlier issues and I have noticed the capsules do change over the series. The 2007 proof FS I have in hand almost fits into a half dollar tube but not quite. The silver dollar tube (either one) seems much too wide for my taste. Best bet (at least for the early proof years) is the RCM 1 oz. Maple tube. Probably fit eight or nine in a ten coin tube.

  35. Goat says

    cagcrisp ;

    The third generation gets the wealth at time of passing from the first generation and the second has to manage it with the third . Right now first generation should be teaching second generation. Every other generation pays Sam . More and more is able to be transfer without a big bite twice. Incorporate pass a business group management helps.

  36. datadave says

    @KCSO – No other comments about the WW1 medal sets other that you and I. I guess that means nobody on this blog cares about them. I thought about buying 20 of them and then waiting to May to decide what to do, but with the general lack of interest in these, there doesn’t seem to be much flipping opportunity. And the way they packaged them buy forcing you to buy the same proof with every set was just plain stupid.

  37. cagcrisp says

    @datadave, “And the way they packaged them by forcing you to buy the same proof with every set was just plain stupid.”

    I see it just the Opposite.

    Forcing buyers to buy a Proof 2018 WWI Centennial Silver Proof was a Gimmick.

    A VERY Successful Financial Gimmick for the Mint.

    The Implied cost of a Silver medal was $48.00 ($99.95-$51.95)

    IF and Only IF ALL 100,000 of the medals had been Sold as a Single the Gross Revenue would have been $4,800,000

    Max Gross Revenue for 100,000 medals Sold as a Single = $4,800,000

    Last Gross Revenue for w/e 02/18/2018 for Total Coin & Medal =$6,096,350.30

    …SO…There has been +$1,296,350.30 by forcing buyers to include the Centennial Silver Proof in with the Medals.

    I will Agree that there was Lost sales on single Centennial Silver Proofs and single Centennial Silver Uncirculated that were moved to the combined sales of the Proof & medal column, however, my calculations also use the Assumption that ALL 100,000 medals would have Sold IF allowed to be Sold alone…

    …And that just would Not have happened…

  38. cagcrisp says

    Current Revenue (02/18/2018):

    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL SILVER PROOF $1,908,123.50
    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL SILVER UNC $739,536.60

    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – ARMY $1,515,341.95
    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – AIR SERV $1,215,791.80
    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – NAVY $1,179,110.15
    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – MARINES $1,230,084.65
    2018 WWI CENTENNIAL COIN & MEDAL – COAST GRD $956,021.75

  39. Einbahnstrasse says

    @ Darek & So Krates —

    On the First Spouse capsules: Yes, for some reason the 2007 capsules are smaller than the 2008-2016. The 2008-2016 capsules fit nicely in a Morgan/Peace dollar tube. If you’ve got a bunch of 2007s you could probably find a smaller tube that fits them better. I’ve just got one of each coin, so I put the 2007s into a dollar tube with some of the others, and stuck a bit of padding next to them so they don’t slide around. The whole set of 36 spouses fits neatly into four silver dollar tubes in the SDB; meanwhile, the OGP fills a large cardboard box in the back of the closet. I don’t know why the mint uses such bulky packaging, but that’s another topic.

  40. NCM Collector says

    You will most likely be able to purchase the medals certified individually for less than the issue price of the set. Don’t rush to buy them as soon as they are delivered. Medals always drop in price.

  41. johnaz says

    I think these medals will hold a good prices, most the sale are going to keep them,and there will be some return.I hear the retund will not be for sale.If you did not order one you will have to buy from someone on ebay.

  42. KEITHSTER says

    So these Trump Rally P Pucks are the new low kids on the block! And at CU mostly lately don’t see them even getting close to the Volcanoes 14,863! Will it explode like one don’t suppose but it should be interesting did get two with free shipping and one from the backorder so sitting pretty each in its own box. The medals should be in strong hands and hold up what with all the veterans coins out there should be wanted for collections !! So Good Luck All “>”>”>”>”><"<"<"<"<"

  43. KCSO says

    datadave says
    FEBRUARY 21, 2018 AT 6:55 AM

    @KCSO – No other comments about the WW1 medal sets other that you and I. I guess that means nobody on this blog cares about them.

    I think very few people in care about these medals, (and outside of this blog) care about the sacrifice and heroism of those engaged in WWI or WW II for that mattter.., or history in general.

    I’m one of those wierdo’s that bought the medals because they mean something to me.., it’s the only WWI tribute I’ll ever see in my lifetime, so I wanted the complete set.

    I bought into thesemedals as WWI has special meaning to me.., & I still believe in 🇺🇸 Values

    They’ll likely be no flip value in these & I could care less.., and frankly I’m not looking forward to the $500 bill when it hits and I expect it’ll hit sooner than May. So stand by.

    I’ve had my butt parked on the western side of Munich for the past week, breaking bread with the locals and making new friends.., though I don’t think they really want to recall nor humbled by their past..,much less WWI or any coins or medals.., though it’s no different in America.., where the vast majority of Americans simply don’t care or too damn dumb to use their heads beyond what crap the MSM is feeding them.

    Anyhoo.., that’s more than what you bargained for on this post –

    So Yes, I look forward to my complete set of WWI Comms, good that you have one too (it’ll be a scarce, though not sure it’ll matter except for personal reflection)
    Not looking forward to the bill
    Ever make it to Bavaria, take a day to spend at Dachau,
    Go see Hohenschwangau,
    And damn.., these people know how to drive and do beer right!

  44. KCSO says

    If the Trump Rally P pucks don’t pop.., there’s your litmus test on the health of the hobby.

    Keithster.., once again, you might have nailed it. TWT

  45. John Q. Coinage says

    KCSO & all the medals are ok but really only the Army has pinache, the rest appear contrived somehow IMHO, “Over There” ok but 2x…. the price was too much for the medals & the $1 is not my cup of beer. GRC Burnished will be interesting but in my experience outside of the hard core, there is not a real big afterlife for the burnished, especially if you paid the 279, or 249$ or 229$ before the drop to 150. GRC lingered, Volcanoes went in a flash, GRC returned for a brief time, I still passed,I have alot of these burnished & selling them is tuff, ebay no where near the price & LCS pay only a tad over spot, in many years I have been told ZERO customers walk in looking for a 5oz burnished… Last, the posting from AMark is really a wake up call to all…..I hope they are wrong long term, but between potential spot drop & the drop off of ‘collecting’ more shakeouts to some I fear….and the mint could care LE$$ more of the same dribble & Congress authorizes such crummy commems it seems, except Apollo 11 Anniv…..bitcoin s value @ $11k >??? nahhhh

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