Thursday, January 26, 2012

Pricing for 2012 Commemorative Coins

The United States Mint has just published pricing information for the 2012 Commemorative Coins. Prices for silver dollars remain unchanged from the prior year, gold coins will be priced according to a grid, and some different product types will be offered.

The two programs for this year feature the U.S. Army Infantry Solider and the Bicentennial of the writing of the Star Spangled Banner. The first program includes a silver dollar in proof or uncirculated versions, and the second program includes a $5 gold coin and silver dollar in proof or uncircualted versions.

As with previous commemorative coin programs, coins are available for introductory prices during a certain period before regular pricing comes into effect.

The proof silver dollars for both programs are priced at $54.95 introductory and $59.95 regular. The uncirculated silver dollars are priced at $49.95 introductory and $54.95 regular. Each silver dollar contains 0.7736 troy ounces of silver.

The $5 gold coins are priced according to a grid (see the grid here) and will be adjusted weekly based on the average weekly market price of gold. Based on the current price of gold within the $1,700 to $1,749.99 range, the proof $5 gold coins would be priced at $517.15 introductory and $522.15 regular. The uncirculated $5 gold coins would be priced at $507.15 introductory and $512.15 regular.

The publication reveals additional products for each program. The US Mint has not offered different presentation options or multi-coin sets for commemorative coins since 2009. In 2010 and 2011, commemorative coins were only offered individually in standard packaging.

A 2012 Infantry Solider Silver Dollar Defenders of Freedom Set is listed priced at $61.95. This set would likely contain one version of the silver dollar, along with historical or other information on the U.S. Army Infantry.

A 2012 Star Spangled Banner 2 Coin Set is listed with an introductory price of $567.15 and regular price of $572.15 (based on gold within the $1,700 to $1749.99 range). This set would contain the proof versions of the $5 gold coin and silver dollar. The multi-coin set price reflects reflects a discount compared to individual prices.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Quick US Mint News Updates

Numismatic Gold Coin Price Increase

Last week, a pricing increase for the United States Mint’s numismatic gold products was only narrowly avoided. This week it is much more likely that a price increase will take place.

For the current weekly period, the average market price of gold is solidly within the $1,650 to $1,699.99 range. In the most likely scenario, as long as the Wednesday PM Fix price is $1,650 or greater, then numismatic gold coin prices will be increased by one increment, or $50 per ounce of gold content. The impacted products would be the remaining 2011 Proof Gold Eagles, 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, and First Spouse Gold Coins.

Pricing changes have generally been made effective some time between mid-morning and noon on Wednesdays.

America the Beautiful Quarters Products

The United States Mint has published pricing for America the Beautiful Quarters Two Roll Sets. The two rolls containing $20 face value in quarters will be $32.95. This is a decrease from the price of $39.95 effective for last year’s releases.

For the 100-coin bags containing $25 face value in quarters, the Mint had previously indicated pricing of $35.95. This is also a decrease from the price of $49.95 charge for last year’s releases.

These pricing adjustments are a welcome change, especially considering the fact that the America the Beautiful Quarters have been difficult to obtain from circulation channels. The bags and rolls for the first release of 2012 featuring El Yunque National Park are scheduled to go on sale February 3, 2012.

Separately, the US Mint has posted an image of the Three Coin Set for the El Yunque Quarters. In my opinion the packaging design is a vast improvement from the previous version, which was simply black and white. The America the Beautiful Quarters Program in particular provides an excellent opportunity for the US Mint to incorporate images and historical information within numismatic products. Hopefully, the new design for this product is a sign of things to come.

Vicksburg Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins

Effective tomorrow, January 25, 2012 at 12:00 Noon ET, the United States Mint will remove the household ordering limit for the Vicksburg National Military Park Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins. Since the start of sales on January 12, the product has been subject to a five per household ordering limit.

According to the most recent sales data (through January 17), the US Mint has received orders for 7,861 coins out of the 35,000 maximum limit.

Pricing for the America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Uncirculated Coins is currently $204.95 per coin. This pricing was established though publication in the Federal Register dated December 30, 2011, although the price was made effective for available designs on December 27. The market price of silver on these dates was $28.65 and $28.18. From the lower number, the market price of silver has now increased by nearly $4.00 per ounce. Any further increase in the market price of silver makes a pricing adjustment for the product a distinct possibility.

Unlike with numismatic gold products, the US Mint does not have their pricing criteria for silver coins explicitly stated. Product sales have been suspended without warning and reinstated with new prices. These pricing adjustments have caught some collectors by surprise.

Friday, January 20, 2012

2011-D Uncirculated Army Half Dollar

On December 16, 2011, the United States Mint concluded sales for the 2011 commemorative coins. Within weeks of that date, prices for the 2011-D Uncirculated Army Half Dollar have soared on the secondary market.

The coins have generated interest from collectors due to their mintage of 39,461, which represents the lowest mintage for a modern commemorative half dollar. Previously, the lowest mintage was held by the uncirculated version of the 1996 Olympic Swimming Half Dollar at 49,533.

Prices realized on eBay auctions over the past week for the uncirculated 2011 Army Half Dollars have covered a range from approximately $50 to $70 each. Some auctions have seen higher prices, particularly for coins graded PCGS MS69 First Strike. There have also been auctions in recent days with final prices just under $50, and even a coin listed with a Buy It Now price of $36.99, which was quickly purchased less than ten minutes after listing.

These prices compare to the last available US Mint price of $19.95 per coin. From the date of the initial release on January 31, 2011 until March 2, 2011, the coins were available at an introductory price of $15.95 per coin.

The high secondary market prices seem to have compelled more people to offer their coins for sale on eBay. In the first week of January, I remember seeing just a handful of the uncirculated Army Half Dollars listed, compared to about 80 listings right now. The higher supply of coins offered for sale may serve to dampen prices.

Besides the low mintage, another interesting aspect to the Army Half Dollar is the grading. Previously issued commemorative half dollars were produced with more of a satin or matte finish, and the special striking and handling allowed for a good number of coins to receive the highest grade of MS70 from PCGS or NGC. Using the 2008-S Bald Eagle Half Dollar as an example, the NGC population census shows 1,190 graded NGC MS 69 and 5,475 graded NGC MS 70.

The 2011 Army Half Dollars seem to have been produced with a finish resembling the brilliant finish found on the 2011 Uncirculated Set coins, which makes obtaining the highest certified grade much more unlikely. The NGC population census shows 2,008 coins graded MS 69 and just 16 graded MS70. The PCGS Population Report shows zero coins graded MS70.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

2011-W Uncirculated $50 Gold Eagle Sold Out

Yesterday, the one ounce 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle sold out on the US Mint’s website. The latest available sales figures show a strong possibility that this coin may mark a new mintage low across all American Gold Eagles.

From 2006 to 2008, the United States Mint offered collectible uncirculated versions of the American Gold Eagle, individually in four denominations or as a complete four coin set. These coins were struck on specially burnished blanks and carried the “W” mint mark. Near the end of 2008, the US Mint announced the cancellation of the fractional versions of the coins, with plans to offer only the one ounce size in the following year. This never came to pass, as high demand for bullion coins resulted in the cancellation of numismatic offerings. The one ounce collectible uncirculated Gold Eagle was similarly cancelled in 2010.

After the two year hiatus, the US Mint once again offered 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle on May 5, 2011. From the outset, I had mentioned the possibility for a low mintage to occur. The collectible uncirculated coins never managed to generate the same interest level as the proof versions of the coins, and even after a two year absence, there did not seem to be a great deal of pent up demand.

The initial sales for the product came in rather low at 1,098 and proceeded at a relatively subdued level. There were some spikes in sales during the course of the offering, particularly during the unusual period when some of the US Mint’s numismatic gold coins were selling near bullion prices.

The most recent sales report, just published today shows sales for the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle at 8,810. The sales reporting date is the same day that the coins sold out, so it is possible that an updated figure may be provided next week. Also bear in mind that these are sales figures, not final audited mintage figures, which the US Mint can sometimes take years to release. However, as it currently stands, this would represent a new mintage low across all denominations and versions of the American Gold Eagle.

The three next lowest mintage Gold Eagles are shown below.

Low Mintage American Gold Eagles

2008-W $10 Uncirculated Gold Eagle 8,883
2006-W $50 Reverse Proof Gold Eagle  9,996
2007-W $25 Uncirculated Gold Eagle  11,455

 

The current mintage low 2008-W Uncirculated $10 Gold Eagle has sold for prices of more than $1,000 on the secondary market, which represents a significant increase in value for quarter ounce gold coin. If memory serves, prices didn’t reach this level until about a year after the initial sell out.

How will the 2011-W Uncirculated $50 Gold Eagle fare? There might be an immediate price bump, but in the longer term I think it will depend in great part on whether the US Mint continues to offer collectible uncirculated Gold Eagles in the coming years. If the coins continue to be offered, mintages may creep even lower for future years, particularly if gold prices continue higher. This would make the 2011-W less exceptional. However, if the US Mint discontinues the offering, this would solidify the status of the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle as the mintage low for the series, making the coin much more significant.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

US Mint Produces 8.2 Billion Circulating Coins in 2011

The US Mint has updated circulating coin production figures through the close of the 2011 calendar year.

During the month of December 2011, production was 431.78 million coins, down from the previous month’s production of 715.96 million. However, the final month of the year has typically seen minimal circulating coin production activity. In December 2010, the Mint struck only 80.2 million coins, while in December 2009, the US Mint did not report any circulating coins produced.

For the full year of 2011, circulating coin production reached just over 8.2 billion. This is an increase of 28.67% compared to production for the 2010 calendar year. The gains were primarily attributable to higher production of cents, nickels, and dimes.

2011 US Mint Coin Production Figures
Dec 2011 YTD 2011
Lincoln Cent – Denver 135.20 M 2,536.14 M
Lincoln Cent – Phil. 170.00 M 2,402.40 M
Jefferson Nickel – Denver 17.04 M 540.24 M
Jefferson Nickel – Phil. 35.04 M 450.00 M
Roosevelt Dime – Denver 42.00 M 754.00 M
Roosevelt Dime – Phil. 32.50 M 748.00 M
Quarters – Denver 0 195.00 M
Quarters – Phil. 0 196.20 M
Kennedy Half – Denver 0 1.70 M
Kennedy Half – Phil. 0 1.75 M
Native Am Dollar – Denver 0 48.16 M
Native Am Dollar – Phil. 0 29.40 M
Pres Dollar – Denver 0 148.96 M
Pres Dollar – Phil. 0 148.40 M
Total 431.78 M 8,200.35 M

Comparing 2011 coin production to the previous year, the number of cents produced across the Philadelphia and Denver Mint facilities rose by 23.13% to 4.94 billion. The number of nickels produced increased by 101.86% to 990.24 million. Both the cent and nickel cost more to produced than their respective face values, and the US Mint has indicated that demand for these two denominations is expected to increase.

Production of dimes for the full year reached 1.5 billion, representing an increase of 34.23% compared to the prior year. The number of quarters increased by 12.73%, but still remains at a historically low annual total of 391.2 million. Half Dollar production was essentially flat at 3.45 million.

Dollar coin production for the 2011 calendar year reached 374.92 million, down 6.79% from the previous year. Production levels will almost certainly experience a sharp decline in the coming year, following the announcement of the suspension of production of Presidential Dollars for circulation.

No changes occurred to the figures breaking down production by individual design for the 2011 Presidential Dollars and 2011 America the Beautiful Quarters. The final figures are provided below.

2011 US Mint Coin Production by Design
Denver Phil. Total
Gettysburg Quarter 30.80 M 30.40 M 61.20 M
Glacier Quarter 31.20 M 30.40 M 61.60 M
Olympic Quarter 30.60 M 30.40 M 61.00 M
Vicksburg Quarter 33.40 M 30.80 M 64.20 M
Chickasaw Quarter 69.40 M 73.80 M 143.20 M
Andrew Johnson Dollar 37.10 M 35.56 M 72.66 M
Ulysses S. Grant Dollar 37.94 M 38.08 M 76.02 M
Rutherd Hayes Dollar 36.82 M 37.66 M 74.48 M
James Garfield Dollar 37.10 M 37.10 M 74.20 M

Gold and Platinum Numismatic Product Prices

Based on the available data, it seems likely that the price for the 2011 Proof Platinum Eagle will be increased tomorrow. Depending on tomorrow’s London Fix prices, a price increase may also be possible for gold numismatic products.

The average price of platinum for the weekly period is in the middle of the US Mint’s $1450 to $1549.99 pricing tier, which is one level higher than the tier currently in effect. Since December 21, the 2011 Proof Platinum Eagle has been priced at $1,692, representing the lowest price during the course of the offering. The likely increase would bring the price to $1,792.

For the available data, the average gold price for the weekly period is just below $1,650. If tomorrow’s London AM Fix price comes in at $1,656.50 or higher and the PM Fix price is above $1,650, then the criteria would be met for a price increase. Prices for the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle, 2011 Proof Gold Eagle, 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, and First Spouse Gold Coins would be increased proportionally by $50 for each ounce of gold content.

The 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle has sold out at the US Mint. More on this tomorrow…